One thing can, however, be said with certainty. It is not going to be a cakewalk for the Congress-led United Democratic Front, which is expecting to repeat the spectacular victories it scored in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the 2010 local bodies polls.

A slew of political setbacks has jolted the UDF out of its sense of complacency. In fact, the problems of UDF started with the onset of the new year, which dawned on a bad note for it. First came the fresh revelations in the infamous ice cream parlour sex scandal case in which the general secretary of the Indian Union Muslim League(IUML), the second most important constituent of the UDF, Mr P K Kunhalikkutty, is embroiled. The revelations made by Kunhalikkutty’s relative, Mr K A Rauf have rattled not only the IUML but also the entire UDF. A number of cases have been filed against the IUML leader for trying to influence witnesses and judges apart from sexual harassment of girls. Hardly had the UDF recovered from the bombshell when Mr R Balakrishna Pillai, chief of the Kerala Congress(B), another partner of the UDF, was sentenced to one-year rigorous imprisonment in the Idamalayar corruption case.

The jailing of Mr Pillai knocked the stuffing out of the UDF’s campaign against LDF government’s corruption. The third setback was the clinching of the Smart City deal by the LDF Government. That development demolished the UDF contention that the LDF was anti-development. Then came the court order for reinvestigation into the palmolein case, which happened when the present Leader of the Opposition, Mr Oommen Chandy, was the finance minister in the K Karunakaran cabinet. Mr. Karunkaran was, incidentally, the first accused in the case. A worried Mr Chandy has already informed he Congress high command that in case he is made an accused in the case after the elections, , he would step down as an MLA. That was when the party high command asked KPCC president Mr Ramesh Chennithala to contest the elections. In case Mr Chandy has to step down, the Ramesh would become the chief minister.

Stunned by these setbacks, the UDF launched a counter attack against the LDF, especially Chief Minister V S Achuthanandan. The UDF made a written complaint against the CM’s son, Mr Arun Kumar, accusing him of a number of irregularities, including links with the lottery mafia. Mr Achuthanandan, however, blunted the edge of the UDF gameplan by promptly handing over the complaint to the Lok Ayukta for an investigation. The CM also wrote to the Prime Minister seeking a CBI probe into the lottery scam, and his son’s role, if any in the matter – a move which has won him public praise.

In the hectic election campaign in which the LDF had a headstart, both the sides pressed into service their top leaders. While Mr Achuthanandan was the star campaigner for the LDF, the UDF campaign was managed by , Congress president Sonia Gandhi, son Rahul Gandhi and senior party leader A K Antony and Vayalar Ravi.

If the turnout of the people at public meetings is any guide, then the LDF has already won the elections! Large and enthusiastic crowds greeted Mr Achuthanandan wherever he campaigned. One instance would suffice to show the phenomenal popularity Mr Achuthanandan is enjoying. At Vengara, a Muslim League stronghold, from where IUML leader P K Kunhalikkutty is contesting, the crowds which came to hear Mr Achuthanandan surprised even the LDF, sending shivers down the spines of UDF leaders.

In glaring contrast, the meetings addressed by Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh were poorly attended. So much so, an angry AICC sought an explanation from the Kozhikode DCC for the poor attendance at Sonia’s meetings. Needless to say, the absence of crowds from Sonia’s and Rahul’s meetings has caused great concern to the Congress and the UDF.

Even on the campaign front, the LDF scored over its rival. Mr Achuthanandan concentrated on the issues of corruption and sex offenders, which went down well with the people. On their part, the UDF leaders made the LDF’s so-called anti-development stance their main campaign theme. The UDF argument that the LDF Government has done nothing for the state during the last five years was effectively countered by the LDF, which reeled off the awards it won from the Union Government headed by the Congress for the state’s excellent performance in such diverse fields as panchatyati raj, environment, health and law and order.

Consolidation of minority votes against the LDF was pronounced in both the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the 2010 local bodies polls. That is no longer the case this time. For once, the Jamaat-e-Islami has taken a decision to back LDF in 124 seats and the UDF in 15 seats. That will be an added bonus for the LDF. What is noteworthy is that it was the Jammat which offered to support the LDF. The latter did not seek its support unlike the last time. Then, the National Secular Conference, a party formed by breakaway IUML MLA PTA Rahim, the Lathin Catholic group and others is supporting the LDF. That way, the minority alienation, which was a feature of the 2009 and 2010 elections, has been neutralised to some extent.

The LDF campaign has succeeded in reaching out to the people by listing the Government’s achievements during its rule. The end of farmers’ suicides, the revival of loss-making public sector units, extension of rice at Rs 2 a kag scheme, doubling of procurement price for paddy from Rs 7 to s 14, the success in keeping prices of essential goods under check by beefing up the public distribution system and its promise to deposit Rs 10,000 in the name of every child born to BPL families and half that amount for children born in APL families have been appreciated by the people.

Last but not the least, the infighting within the Congress and the rift between the Congress and its allies like Kerala Congress(Mani) could also damage the prospects of the UDF. KC(M) chief Mani has refused to digest the humiliation of having been fobbed off with 15 seats as against his demand for 22’ similarly, other allies like the Communist Marist Party(CMP) and the Socialist Janata(Democratic) are also sulking over the imposition of unwinnable seats on them by big brother Congress. That again is a matter of worry for the Congress and the UDF. Even within the Congress, he manner in which Oommen Chandy and Ramesh divided seats between themselves has created widespread resentment. Irt won’t be a surprise if the resentment by those who have been denied tickets is taken to the polling booths.

All in all, it is a neck-and-neck race with the LDF tortoise snapping at the heels of the UDF rabbit. For all you know, the UDF could be in for an unpleasant surprise. If the LDF manages to retain power, the Front would be creating history by bucking the trend of an incumbent government never being voted back to power in Kerala. (IPA Service)