The Congress-led United Front is confident that the 75 per cent polling would favour it. Its reasoning: heavy polling has always favoured the UDF.

Facts, however, tell a different tale. For instance, in 1980, the State assembly elections witnessed the heaviest of polling since 1967: 80.12 per cent. Everybody expected the UDF to emerge victorious. But it was the Left Democratic Front (LDF) which won the elections. Therefore, that logic no longer holds water.

The fact is that the heavy polling would favour both the fronts. In the April 13 elections, the heavy polling would go in favour of the LDF in districts like Kasargode, Kannur, Kozhikode, Palakkad and Kollam, which are known as its strongholds.

Likewise, in districts like Ernakulam, Kottayam, Idukki, and Malappuram, the heavy polling gives the UDF a distinct edge.

Indications are that in two districts, Alappuzha and Thrissur, the two fronts are engaged in a neck-and-neck fight, and the result could go either way.

Also, comparatively low polling in Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta districts may benefit the LDF, say observers. The low polling, they say, shows that voters belonging to certain church groups have stayed away from the polling booths. This must affect the prospects of the UDF.

Much depends on to what extent the VS factor would benefit the LDF. Even UDF circles concede that Chief Minister V S Achuthanandan has taken the fight to the rival camp with his whirlwind election campaign, which attracted mammoth crowds. If the crowds that thronged the VS meetings have turned up at the polling booths, then that is bad news for the UDF. (IPA)