Nepal is currently going through a period of political uncertainty which will be resolved one way or the other on May 28 when the Constituent Assembly adopts – or fails to adopt – the constitution. To take a quick look at recent history, King Gyanendra gave up power on April 21, 2006, the Nepal Legislature formally abolished the monarchy and declared the country a republic on May 28, 2008. Elections to the Constituent Assembly were held earlier on April 10, 2008. Since then the Assembly has been labouring at drafting and adopting a constitution. But the three principal parties in the Assembly are constantly at loggerheads, creating an impasse. They are the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) having 229 members, the Nepali Congress (115) and the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) (108) in a House of 601.

As things stand, political observers believe there is no chance of the three parties reaching an agreement which will make the adoption of the constitution possible by May 28. If they fail to reach a consensus, either the term of the Assembly will have to be extended yet again by overcoming legal hurdles, or, in the alternative, the Assembly will have to be dissolved and the country will have to go in for fresh elections. Nilambar Acharya, chairman of the Constitution Committee, said: “The present conflict between the parties and their lust for power makes it obvious that we can’t have a constitution in the next fifty days.”

What are the key questions over which the parties differ ? One is deciding the fate of the former Maoist guerillas. After the peace process started they have been living in camps. Once the idea was mooted that they should be integrated into the (then Royal) Nepal Army. But the idea did not find favour with the Army brass hats. The United Nations mission left the country in January this year, handing over the responsibility of the Maoist ex-combatants to the Government.

Another question is about the nature of the polity, whether it should be unitary or federal, divided into states along ethnic lines. The Maoists want this. They proposed that the country should be divided into fourteen provinces on the basis of ethnicity. But the idea was rejected by the Nepali Congress and some smaller parties. The Maoists responded by threatening that they would write their own “People’s Constitution”. The Madhesi dalits and the Muslims are aggrieved that their rights have not found place in the draft constitution. There are other differences also, like the system of governance and the electoral system.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal (he belongs to the CPN-UML) took on board four Maoist ministers on March 6. It ended weeks of uncertainty about whether or not the ex-rebels would join the Government. The ministers are Krishna Bahadur Mahara (Deputy Prime Minister and minister for information), Top Bahadur Rayamajhi (physical planning and works), Barsha Man Pun (peace and reconstruction) and Kharga Bahadur Biswakarma (tourism). Their inclusion, however, has not softened the Maoists’ stand on major issues.

So, before engaging with India, the Nepal Government will have to sort out its own problems, bring about a commonality of views between the principal constituents of the Government on major issues and formulate a foreign policy. Now there is no Foreign Minister in Nepal. The job is being looked after by Foreign Secretary Madhav Kumar Bhattarai. As far as India is concerned, this “commonality” may be hard to achieve, mainly because of the Maoists.

The Maoists remain as hostile to India as ever. Their interaction with the leaders of the CPI-M may have persuaded them to give up the path of armed struggle and join the mainstream of democratic politics, but it has not diluted a whit their hard line on India. On the eve of Krishna’s visit, their mouthpiece Janadisha carried a front page article alleging that the visit was aimed at pressurizing the Khanal Government not to allocate the important home portfolio to the Maoists, signing a revised extradition treaty and learning about the Maoist war strategy after May 28. This last is intriguing. Do the Maoists intend to go back to the war path after May 28 ?

The Maoists have started a campaign against the Indian company GMR group’s proposed 300 MW hydro-power project in Upper Karnali. They say it goes against Nepal’s national interest. Intriguingly, when the project was approved by the Nepali cabinet, the Maoists were very much part of the Government and did not object. They started opposing it after they went out of power. They are back again but continue to oppose not only the hydro project but all Indo-Nepal joint ventures. They are also targeting the Indian ambassador and his staff.

The Chinese Government and party leaders encourage the Maoists to pursue their anti-India line. Late last year, a Chinese academician who visited Nepal warned that China was aware of India’s plans to “Sikkimize” Nepal but China would not stand by silently, should India try to do this. Given the strength and influence of the Maoists in the Government, improving Indo-Nepal ties would not be easy. Krishna had a meeting with the Maoist supremo Prachanda on Friday (April 22) during which the latter said the Maoists wanted to establish Indo-Nepal relations “on a new basis.” Only time will tell whether the Maoists would change their attitude toward India.(IPA Service)