The ties were already strained leading up to the polls, first with the arrest of former minister A. Raja on the 2G scam and then the seat sharing between the two parties. Although both the parties are playing down the soured relationship after the recent charge sheet against the DMK chief Karunanidhi ‘s daughter Kanimozhi, the DMK is worried about its future. No doubt that the name of his wife Dayalu Ammal is left out for the time being but someone will certainly go to court asking for the reasons. Once Dayalu’s name comes, it is directly involving Karunanidhi’s family, which will be a great embarrassment to the chief minister.

For the Congress it will be a stable situation if the combine wins Tamil Nadu polls even though the DMK would carry with it the corrupt ministers as its baggage. It will also begin to flex its muscles. On the other hand if the DMK withdraws or even pulls out its ministers from the Manmohan Singh government the UPA would become unstable. For every issue the government will have to make a fresh effort to get the support of the DMK, which has 18 solid MPs. It will have to look elsewhere for support like SP, RLD or smaller parties, With the U.P elections next on the agenda, getting the support of the SP or the BSP is going to be dicey to run the day-to-day parliament business. . Karunanidhi would not like to see a situation where the Congress has a tie up with the AIADMK if it comes to power as Jayalalithaa had already promised to get the 18 members if the Congress dumps the DMK. The Congress would be in a stronger position if the party does well in the Assembly polls irrespective of the DMK performance.

As for the DMK, it is in a catch 22 situation. It has no other option but to swallow the humiliation on the 2G scam arrests as of now. The problem is really serious. If the combine wins the polls, the DMK will have an upper hand. Then other problems like the Congress wanting to join the DMK government will arise which the DMK is not too willing to accommodate. Karunanidhi will also have family problems like division of power within the family. With Kanimozhi’s chargesheet, one problem is solved for the DMK patriarch, as she will not have to be given any share in power. Although it may have caused bitterness within his family that his wife Dayalu, who owns 60 per cent share in the Kalaignar TV is not named by the CBI while implicating Kanimozhi as the co conspirator, the chief minister has to deal with it as a family problem. As for Kanimozhi her young political career seems to be in trouble within four years of coming to Delhi as a Rajya Sabha member and becoming the face of the DMK in Delhi circles. She enjoyed the support of many DMK M.Ps and ministers because of her proximity to their leader although she could not expect much from either Stalin or Azhagiri in her support because of the sibling rivalry. Now it is between the two brothers Stalin and Azhagiri. Since Karunanihdi has already announced that Stalin would be his successor, how he tackles Azhagiri is to be seen.

Moreover, if the DMK loses, it will face problem from the Jayalaliatha led government at the state and the Congress led UPA at the centre with a stronger Congress. Therefore, even if the DMK pulls out its ministers, it will have to continue to give support to the Congress at the centre to save itself.

With all these problems staring in its face, the DMK is still debating as to how to deal with the situation and what better way than to wait for the poll results? It is the same situation with the Congress, which does not want to rock the boat unnecessarily. While a section in the party suspects deliberate design behind the leaks leading up to the charge sheet, there is caution in other section, which wants to wait for the poll results. The party is not even ready to discuss the embarrassing and tricky situation. In all probability nothing serious can happen in Chennai until May 13 when the crucial poll results are announced and then the cat and the mouse game will continue. Thereafter things will crystallize and the political situation and regroupings if any, may become clear. (IPA Service)