The biggest scene-changer has been the security forces continuing successes in curbing infiltrations and elimination of a large number of terrorists including some of their top leaders operating in the state.

The second most important development is the radical change in the mood of the Valley’s people. Fired by a desire for peace, its people have started giving lukewarm response to the frequent shutdown calls given by the hardliner separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani. Some sections of the disillusioned people have even started voicing protests against such calls which have snatched their sources of livelihood. This has forced Geelani to declare that no frequent shutdown calls would henceforth be given.

The change in the peoples mood is also reflected by two other developments which have exposed the separatists oft-repeated claims of being the Valley’s real representatives. One is the defiance by the people of their calls for boycotting the on-going panchayat elections. The voting percentages in these elections like those in the last Assembly elections have been very high. This also shows that whatever support base the separatists had in the state has been further eroded.

The other development is the revelations by some senior separatist leaders that some of the top Hurriyat leaders and clerics were killed by “our own people’ and not gunned down by the security forces. First it was Hurriyat’s former Chairman Prof. Abdul Ghani Bhatt and some other moderate leaders who said that the killing of Mirwaiz senior Moulvi Mohammad Farooq and Abdul Ghani Lone in 1990 and 1992, was the handiwork of the people “from our own ranks”. Now the moderates as also some hardliner separatists have charged that Jamiat Ahle Hadith chief Maulana Showkat Ahmed Shah was assassinated a few days ago by the black sheep “in our ranks”. Maulana’s “crime” was that he condemned violence and did not support separatist ideas.

All these developments reflect the change not only in the mood of the Valley but are also indicative of the state’s improved security and political environment.

It is perhaps these compulsions of Kashmir’s changing scenario that has prompted even Geelani to ask the Kashmiri Pandits who had been forced to migrate from the Valley after the eruption of insurgency in 1989, to return. He says “90 % of the Muslim population in Jammu and Kashmir would protect their Hindu brethren if they returned to the Valley.” Quoting from the Quran, Geelani said “Allah does not discriminate between human beings on the basis of religion, caste, colour, creed, wealth, poverty, rural or urban origin.” One does not know if it will be appropriate to describe Geelani’s utterances as “Devil quoting the scriptures”.

Although there is need to further strengthen the positive trends, two other factors will also contribute to the shaping of the state’s future security and political scenarios. One is the state of US-Pak relations. Latest developments expose their deepened divide over the issues relating to terrorism. However, neither the US nor Pakistan can afford to part ways. The US largely depends on Pakistan for promoting its strategic objectives in the region and for effectively fighting Afghanistan-based Taliban. Pakistan would go bankrupt if the US stops giving massive funds to the otherwise failing state. In sharp contrast to its pre-9/11 attitude, the US apparently no longer wants to destabilize India as it had first tried by backing Khalistan movement in Punjab and then the separatists in J & K. The US’s expected pressure on India and Pakistan for normalizing their ties and for resolving the Kashmir issue would expectedly discourage Pakistan from stepping up its support to the J&K terrorists during this summer as has been happening in the past.

The second factor which will influence the shape of future developments will be the response from within the state to and the Centre’s action on the interlocutors report expected to be submitted in the next few days. The three interlocutor team headed by journalist Dileep Padgaonkar has contradicted speculation that the report would recommend changes in the nomenclatures of the J&K Governor and Chief Minister as President and Prime Minister respectively.

Padgaonkar has clarified that the interlocutors are operating well within the existing boundaries of J&K. They have virtually ruled out any recommendations that would make a case for trifurcation of the state or suggest changes in the special status the state enjoys under Article 370. Padgaonkar said “Our endeavour is to address each and every real or perceived sense of victimhood in the state and this without disturbing the state’s unity and territorial integrity and without denting the special status the state enjoys in the Indian Union. Nomenclatures of this or that office is the least of our concerns. We need to move away from symbolism and slogans to substance and the substance is the mechanism that would allow all the people of the state to exercise their democratic rights without fear and favour”.

Despite the fact that India and Pakistan had twice returned from the brink of solving J&K problem, –first during the Vajpayee-Nawaz Sharif-led regimes when Pakistan’s Kargil misadventure torpedoed it and then during the Manmohan Singh-Pervez Musharraff-led governments when terrorist Mumbai attacks nullified it, the above positive developments make it tempting to make hazardous prediction that it may not be long before the state starts further witnessing better times. Hope sustains life. (IPA Service)