India was never on the Al Qaeda’s main radar. Arguably, even the question of Kashmir did not exercise Osama as much as it did his Pakistani patrons. There is another reason why his death may not matter much to India. It is that the Al Qaeda has been becoming weaker over the years and is bound to become more feeble after Osama’s death. Its failure to launch an attack on America after 9/11 and to sustain the earlier acts of terrorism in Europe confirm this debilitation.

Pakistan, too, may have started to lose interest in Osama and is probably secretly pleased that he was “taken out” by the Americans. It was obvious that to harbour the Devil Incarnate was bound to prove extremely costly as time passed by. There was no place where the Pakistanis could install him. Even if the Taliban re-established control over Afghanistan, Osama and Mullah Omar could hardly be expected to begin playing their earlier role there without inviting fresh reprisals from the US. By allowing him to build a million dollar mansion with 12-foot high walls not far from Islamabad, Pakistan was probably signalling to the US that someone of importance lived there.

Now that the terrorist mastermind is gone, there is unlikely to be any single person to pick up his Kalashnikov. But it is more than likely that the Al Qaeda’s place will be taken by the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, which was once described by Newsweek as the new Al Qaeda and “potentially the most dangerous terrorist outfit on the planet”. Since the LeT is India-centric, the threat to India will persist and may even increase because the only way Islamabad can deflect the anti-American sentiments in Pakistan is by targeting India through its “strategic assets”.

Islamabad’s compulsions to do so will be all the greater because the impunity with which the Americans violated Pakistani sovereignty by “invading” Abbottabad means that the rage of not only the terrorists, but even large sections of the ordinary people will be at an all-time high in the near future. As it is, they are angry over the drone attacks, which are supposed to be carried out with Pakistan’s tacit permission, and the presence of undercover agents, one of whom was caught and extradited after much brouhaha. But the flying in of as many as three helicopters with their armed personnel, and the ferrying out of the dead and the alive from an ISI safe house, are obviously the limit where Pakistan’s self-respect is concerned.

In addition, the Pakistan military will have much explaining to do. For the rest of the world, who are unaware of its secret life involving supping with terrorists and keeping in readiness to assume the country’s administrative responsibilities, as it has done so often in the past, the fact that Osama lived within shouting distance of army personnel for nearly five years can only cause astonishment and outrage. To the international community, the confirmation that the army in Pakistan is the only one in the world which harbours terrorists will come as a shock even though the clandestine relationship has long been known in India.

The resultant tarnishing of the army’s image will mean that its claims to be Pakistan’s saviour vis-à-vis an aggrandizing India will be damaged. It is this reputation which it uses when carrying out its periodic coups against civilian rulers. Moreover, since the army rank and file have been infected by the virus of terrorism, they will resent the renewed criticism which the organization will face. The fact of this radicalization was acknowledged by the army chief, Ashfaq Kayani, to explain why he could not condone the assassinations of Salman Taseer and Shahbaz Bhatt, the minority affairs minister.

An increase in militancy in Kashmir via the infusion of terrorists from across the border, the reactivation of the “sleeper cells” of the Indian Mujahideen and SIMI and a repetition of the Mumbai-style attack of November 26, 2008, remain the only way in which taint caused Osama’s detection inside Pakistan can be lessened. There were reports during the cricket world cup matches that the Pakistan-based terrorists might carry out a major attack. Mercifully, nothing happened. But to believe that the LeT will continue to sit idle and Hafiz Saeed will be content only to call for a jehad against India will be foolish. (IPA Service)