With the D-day just three days away, tension is mounting in both the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF).

Both the fronts are exuding optimism about the outcome. While the UDF is sure that it will win between 80 and 100 seats, the LDF thinks it will secure a working majority – around 72-75 seats. Significantly, the UDF leaders are no longer talking of walking away with upwards of 100 seats.

While the LDF has a distinct edge in districts like Kasargode, Kannur, Palakkad, Kollam and Kozhikode, the UDF boasts it will bag Thiruvananthapuram, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, Pathanamthitta, Malappuram and Wayanad districts. It is a neck-and-neck fight in Alappuzha and Thrissur ditricts.

Veteran observers of the Kerala poll scene opine that the outcome would be decided by the central districts. The alienation of some Christian groups and the VS factor would play a decisive factor in these districts, it is being pointed out.

The UDF will face problems irrespective of whether it wins or loses. If it wins less than 80 seats, the Congress will find itself under severe pressure from its allies like the KC(M) and SJD. Should the UDF manage to win more than 80 seats, the Congress will be in a position to dictate terms in matters like ministry formation and allocation of portfolios.

Speculation is also rife that if the UDF secures fewer than 80 seats, there is a possibility of the Kerala Congress (Mani) group switching over to the LDF camp.

If the LDF manages to retain power, it will create history, for, no incumbent government has been voted back to power in the State. LDF leaders are confident that the people-friendly performance of the Government, the unity in the LDF camp and, last but not the least, the VS factor will tilt the scales in their favour. (IPA)