First of all, the various stakeholders in the Telengana region are getting ready to revive the agitation immediately. They had pushed the issue to the backburner after the centre had announced that it would be taken up only after the Assembly polls. This had convinced them to put off their agitation for the time being.

Five months have passed since the report of the Sri Krishna Commission had been submitted to the centre, which had given six options to resolve the issue. The Union Home Minister had convened one all party meeting in which copies of the report were distributed to the participants. There was no second meeting after that and the political parties have no interest in attending a second meeting because they have already given their stand – those who are for separate Telengana and those who are against. The other political parties like the TRS, Telugu Desam, the BJP and the left had taken their stand for a separate state. Now the time has come for the centre to focus attention on the issue, as the people of the region are not willing to wait any more.

But the problem for the Congress is to take a decision as the party in the state is divided vertically on this issue. The MPs and MLAs had been asked to restrain themselves until after the Assembly polls but they are getting restless. The centre seems to be in favor of keeping the state united but conferring a special status for Telengana. So the first thing the Congress has to do is to persuade its party legislators and evolve a consensus but the legislators are taking a totally regional line for or against a separate Telengana.

There is the threat of instability as either side may decide to resign if their demand is not accepted and bring down the fragile Kiran Reddy government. The other danger is the extent of violence, which will affect the law and order situation in the state. Kiran Reddy has not been found effective and seen as a dummy for the centre.

Already stung by the successful “Telengana nagara” convened by the Telugu Desam MLA, Mr. Nagam Janardhan Reddy, the TRS has put its plans for the next phase of the agitation, in June, into top gear. The TRS chief, Mr. K. Chandrasekhar Rao, has convened the party state executive to intensify the separate Telengana struggle from May 15.

Once the agitation is revived it will be under no body’s control. The other mischievous elements may also jump into the fray to make matters worse. No wonder the Centre is getting ready to send forces after their poll duties to the state suspecting trouble.

The other problem for the Congress is political. Kadappa Lok Sabha constituency and Pulivendla Assembly constituency, which had gone to bye-elections due the resignation of Jagan Reddy and his mother Rajyalakshmi, are the reserve areas of the YSR family for decades now. YSR had held them for years and then his brother Vivekananda Reddy and now his son Jagan Reddy. After Jagan has gone out of the Congress, the Congress and Jagan had been fighting for the YSR legacy. While Jagan has already got the monetary legacy of YSR he is now staking claim for his political legacy. Once he gets both, he would establish himself in the state politics. His new outfit YSR Congress has an opening account in both the Lok Sabha and the Assembly. He has five MLAs openly supporting him in his campaign and another 30 Congress MLAs supporting him clandestinely. The Congress high command is still wondering how to deal with the five MLAs, who had defied the party by going against it in the bye-elections. Jagan is not in a hurry to destabilize Kiran Reddy government but he can become a nuisance in the Assembly with the help of his supporters and defy Kiran Reddy. Although the Congress has got the support of Chiranjeevi and his merged Praja Rajyam Party, the position is precarious for the Congress.

The centre seems to be aware of the Telengana problem and is already planning to move forces to Andhra Pradesh. But the problem is much more serious and using the brute force alone will not help. There should be a multi pronged effort including political to tackle the knotty issue and all sides should make sure that the situation does not go beyond control. (IPA Service)