True, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) lost power. But it notched up a significant political victory even in defeat. The Front went down fighting and with all its guns blazing. Conversely, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) wrested power. But the euphoria of its victory was soured by the wafer-thin majority of its win and the attendant problems arising therefrom.

Not unexpectedly, the ‘man of the match’ was 87-year-old CPI(M) stalwart and Kerala Chief Minister V S Achuthanandan. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, it must be said that the real battle was between the UDF and VS. And the unrelenting fighter that he is, VS almost took the game away from the UDF. One is reminded of the classic India-Pakistan one-dayer way back in Chennai in which Sachin Tendulkar almost single-handedly won the match for India only to lose it in a classic thriller.

In a way, VS was fighting against heavy odds and on three fronts. He had to encounter the unrelenting fury of the UDF, which targeted him with a unprecedented ferocity. Then, he had to contend with the pinpricks and innuendos from his own party colleagues. Ironically, his detractors had to depend on VS heavily to ensure their victory. And lastly, he had also to reckon with a hostile and blatantly partisan media, both print and visual.

But to the credit of VS, he almost won the battle, scaring the daylights out of the UDF leaders and surprising his own party leaders. If only, the CPI(M) official wing had put the might of its awesome organizational machinery at his disposal, VS would have won and created history by becoming the first CM who retained power in the history of Kerala. But that was not to be. CPI(M) leaders, especially State secretary Pinarayi Vijayan derived an almost malicious pleasure in taking digs even at VS in the thick of the election battle; at one point it looked as if VS won’t even get the ticket. But thanks to the party’s polit bureau, VS managed to enter the fray. And what a difference he made. With a single-mindedness and enthusiasm that would shame leaders half his age, he undertook a whirlwind campaign, which jolted the smug UDF Camp out of its sense of complacency.

The doughty Chief Minister also struck a responsive chord not only among the party’s rank and file but also the people at large by espousing the cause of the common man. His proactive role in exposing corruption and other wrongdoing by the UDF leaders endeared him to the common voter. In him they saw a leader who does not shy away from fighting corruption and sexual misdemeanour of political rivals including Indian Union Muslim League general secretary P K Kunhalikkutty. The imprisonment of Kerala Congress(B) leader R Balakrishna Pillai on corruption charges was possible, thanks to the two-decade old persistence of VS.

One thing is for sure. The Kerala CPI(M) would not be the same post-election. Changes are likely to take place, heads may roll. It is introspection time for the top CPI(M) leadership of the state unit. What dented the confidence of the party’s rank and file was also the partisan role played by the central leadership of the CPI(M) which sided with the official wing of the Kerala CPI(M) instead of being the umpire.

The UDF leaders’ calculation that the assembly election outcome would be a repeat of the 2009 Lok Sabha election and the 2010 local bodies poll in which the front scored spectacular victories, proved woefully wrong. The LDF not only wiped off the humiliation of the twin losses but also recovered a lot of lost ground in this election. Out of the 14 districts, the LDF led in eight.. True, the LDF’s vote percentage fell from 48. 58 to 44.27 while the UDF share went up from 42 per cent in 2006 to 46 in 2011. But the difference between the two fronts in terms of votes was a mere 1.5 lakh according to preliminary estimates.

Ironically, the LDF lost ground in its stronghold districts of Kannur and Palakkad. There the UDF won more seats than their own calculations. Also, in five constituencies, the LDF lost by a margin of less than 500 votes – in Piravom in Ernakulam district, the LDF lost by 157 votes. The LDF did not do well in central Kerala, especially in Ernakulam where the UDF won 11 out of the 14 seats the district has.

True, the UDF camp is happy over the outcome. But the celebrations are muted. The body language of the UDF leaders betray their sense of dismay and nervousness over the shape of things to come. Leader of the UDF, Congress has become weaker winning only 38 out of the 82 seats it contested. Its allies, the Kerala Congress(Mani) and IUML have won 9 and 20 seats respectively. Take away the IUML and KC-M tally, and the UDF scorecard is embarrassingly poor.

The CPI(M) is the single largest party having won 47 out of the 92 seats it contested; the CPI came second winning 13 out of the 27seats it contested.

Needless to say, the Congress will be more vulnerable to the pressure of the allies, who can be expected to extract their pound of flesh. KC(M) leader K M Mani has already sounded a note of warning, which should worry the Congress. The Congress will have to constantly look over its shoulders in all matters including ministry formation and policy-making. Governance won’t at all be easy and smooth for the future UDF Government. The outlook for the future does not look bright at all.

The BJP’s hopes for opening its account in the state assembly were dashed to the ground with the party drawing a plank this time also. Only consolation is that the party came second in three constituencies which it was expected to win.

Of course, the Oommen Chandy-led A group has managed to have 20 of its candidates elected, followed by the Chennithala faction which has 17 of its supporters in the new assembly. Therefore, there is no threat to Chandy becoming the new CM. The Rahul Brigade in the State Congress also suffered a setback with only 7 out of its 16candidates making it past the winning post.

A disturbing upshot of the electoral verdict is the increased influence of religious and casteist forces on the politics of the state. The Nair Service Society(NSS), for instance , shed its much-trumpeted equidistant policy, openly backing the UDF. The polarization of the Muslim voters, especially in Malappuram district also has ominous implications for the state’s communal fabric.

And, last but not the least, the common man has delivered a strong message to the politicians in unmistakable terms: Do not take us for granted; perform or perish; also, do not let success go to your head and make you arrogant and inaccessible. He has proved that in a democracy, he is the unquestioned master. Will the political class learn appropriate lessons from the electoral verdict and bend their energies to the task of ensuring people-friendly governance? If they do not, troubled times are ahead for God’s Own Country and its people. (IPA Service)