Manmohan Singh government celebrated its second birthday of UPA 2 on Sunday with promises of making course correction on certain issues. While the opposition has criticized the government for its poor performance on several fronts including corruption and price rise, the Manmohan Singh government has patted itself on its good performance with its favorable report card. The message from 7, Race Course Road on Sunday was that the UPA 2 had scored big by delivering stability, economic growth and social progress. However, the perception is that the government is moving from one crisis to another, reacting to them on daily basis be it the 2 G Spectrum, Adarsh scam or Commonwealth Games. Even on economic reforms, the UPA 2 was dragging its feet on banking reforms, labor, insurance reform, GST and retail opening up despite the absence of the left parties in the UPA 2. The rising prices and soaring inflation are the two important things that should worry the government.

The third year is a crucial year for any government at the centre, as it will decide the course of the future direction. Realizing this, Prime Minister himself has admitted that there was a need for course correction.

What will be the challenges facing the Congress and the government next year? Politically, the Telengana crisis is staring at the government in the next few days and it is a volatile and sensitive issue. The Congress has to take a decision one way or the other and either way there is going to be trouble in Andhra Pradesh, which may lead to the President’s Rule. The other immediate problem is to tackle the yoga Guru Swamy Ramdev, who is threatening to go on fast with about 50,000 of his followers on the black money issue. His demands like nationalization of assets, demonetization etc requires not only debate but also political will. Will the government yield to Ramdev’s demand as it did on the Anna Hazare fast on the Lok Pal bill? The government has to answer why it is not fulfilling it 2009 election promise to bring back the black money within 100 days of coming to power.

On the political side, preparations have already started for the 2012 crucial Assembly elections to UP and Gujarat. The party’s concentration, aided by the centre will be totally on boosting its image. Singh started his third year by announcing compensation to the injured farmers in Bhatta Parsaul and Achchapur villages in Greater Noida whose cause the Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi has taken up in a big way. The Congress thinks that the proposed bills like the Lok Pal Bill, Food Security, Land Acquisition Bill and the Communal Harmony Bill may give some boost to the party and the government.

The most important challenge is the image correction. Singh and Sonia Gandhi have taken note of the concern of the public on curbing corruption and black money. Some measures have been taken already and cases are going on against Raja, Kalmadi and others pertaining to some of the scams. These cases may bring out more embarrassing facts. The public is getting disenchanted with the government.

To meet the challenges of land related issues, the centre will also have to pass the Land Acquisition Bill in the next session. The government has to bring to Parliament other important bills like the Food security, communal harmony bill, Lok Pal bill and other controversial issues. There is a chance that it may even bring the jinxed women reservation bill before the UP polls. Facing a minority in the Rajya Sabha, each bill needs a formidable strategy for the floor managers. Even the UPA strength is razor thin now.

This is where the question of the stability of the government comes in. The photograph of the leaders sitting in the dais on Sunday evening showed the real state of affairs. The DMK ministers boycotted the function to protest against Kanimozhi arrest, the party was represented only by its parliamentary party leader T.R. Balu. With the strained relationship between the Congress and the DMK it is only a question of days when the DMK will withdraw from the government. The West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee also did not attend the function leaving it to her parliamentary party leader Sudip Bandopadhyaya. Although the Trinamool Congress relationship is good at present, Mamata, with her mercurial behavior can give trouble on any issue. The NCP- Congress relationship is strained in Maharashtra affecting even convening of its cabinet meetings. The government cannot depend on the support of the SP or BSP – both have high stakes in UP polls – to bail it out all the time. They will demand their pound of flesh and moreover, it may not suit them to be seen as supporting the Congress before the UP polls.

The other important challenge is tackling the price rise and inflation. While Singh has patted himself on his back on the 8 per cent economic growth last year or the prediction of an 8.5 per cent growth next year people are more worried as to the day to day problems of buying vegetables and rice and wheat. The frequent petrol and diesel price hike has affected this more. The price rise and inflation will adversely affect the prospects more than anything else.

There is still hope for the Congress as the left is still licking its wounds and the BJP is not yet ready. The opposition space is being taken by people like Anna Hazare and Baba Randev, If the mid course correction is taken up with determination, there is some chance of survival for the Congress. (IPA Service)