For a start, his target of criticism can no longer be only the Congress since the bill is now in parliament. As a result, any disparaging remarks that he and his followers may make will be construed as a breach of parliamentary privilege, a hazard which Kiran Bedi and Om Puri are facing. Considering that the charge of being contemptuous of parliamentary democracy has been levelled against him from the start, a renewal of the accusation, this time with somewhat greater justification, cannot but put him on the defensive.

Yet, there is little doubt that he will not lack reasons for personal dissatisfaction since the chances are that, first, the standing committee and then parliament itself will tone down the Anna version of the bill to bring it closer to the government’s original draft. The reason is simple. It isn’t only the Congress, but the entire political class is edgy about a powerful ombudsman, who will in all probability put an end to the decades of the misuse of official power by the ruling parties.

Besides, it is not only the scope of corruption which will be reduced by the Lokpal. The fact that the CBI and the CVC will become nearly as autonomous as it was originally envisaged means that no government will be able to manipulate these and other official agencies, such as the police, as the Narendra Modi government did during the Gujarat riots, or the Buddhadev Bhattacharjee government did during the “invasion” of Nandigram by the Marxist militia.

Besides, the fact that the Lok Ayuktas will now have to be established in the states means that the Modi government’s stalling of the setting up of even a weak state-level ombudsman for seven years will no longer require the high court’s intervention as at present. Although the BJP has jumped on to the Anna bandwagon to extract the most political mileage it can from the anti-Congress campaign, it is issues such as these which are likely to induce second thoughts in the party.

At the same time, it is obvious that the public desire for an effective Lokpal has become so strong that no party will dare to dilute the provisions beyond a point. This outside pressure is Anna’s main achievement. However, his movement remains weak on two counts. First, since he has made fasts his sole trump card, he has no option but to resort to a hunger strike if he feels that the government is backtracking. Hence, his threat that he has only suspended his 12-day fast.

The difficulty with such a stand is that a weapon can lose its efficacy if used too often. Although the image of selfless service which Anna has acquired and the threat to his own life which he is willing to court will moderate any criticism of resorting to moral blackmail too frequently, the limited nature of his social base – there is nothing to indicate that the Dalits, the minorities and the poor are with him – will hamper any attempt to start a large-scale agitation all over again. This is all the more so if it is believed that the final draft of the Lokpal bill can reasonably be expected to curb corruption. A fast in this context will suggest that Anna is being obdurate again.

The second weakness of his movement is his team, especially when it has already disintegrated with two prominent members – Justice Santosh Hegde and Swami Agnivesh – dissociating themselves from the combative and somewhat immature trio of Prashant Bhushan, Arvind Kejriwal and Kiran Bedi. Considering that even earlier they were regarded as tactically naïve with Bal Thackeray accusing them of playing with Anna’s life, the trio is unlikely to be seen as capable of leading a movement over a long period even if Medha Patkar joins it.

As it is, doubts about the three have been raised by Om Puri’s drunken antics and Kiran Bedi’s clowning on the public stage at the Ramlila grounds. In addition, the burning of the official Lokpal bill and Kejriwal’s assertion during Anna’s fast at Jantar Mantar that there was nothing wrong with blackmail left a bad taste in the mouth. The Anna camp, therefore, is likely to face rough weather in the coming days. (IPA Service)