Two years later, the scene is totally different. The Congress has lost its élan while the BJP is so sure of success that it now has more than one contender for the prime minister’s post. Its euphoria may be premature, but there is little doubt that the Congress will find it virtually impossible to retain its present tally of seats. The party will be lucky if it does not fall below its 2004 total of 145.

It is unlikely, however, that the Congress’s decline will lead to the UPA’s collapse. The reason is that the BJP no longer has the appeal which it had in Atal Behari Vajpayee’s time. Therefore, there is not much likelihood of parties like the Telugu Desam or the Biju Janata Dal, let alone the Trinamool Congress, which were earlier in the NDA, returning to the saffron fold. What will happen, however, is that there will be considerable increase in the clout of the UPA’s smaller partners and allies. Among those who are likely to carry greater weight are UPA constituents like Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar while allies like Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav will also be more assertive as a result of the Congress’s weakness.

The million dollar question, however, will relate to Jayalalithaa. Her natural inclination will be to throw in her lot with the NDA, but not if Narendra Modi is the front-runner for the prime minister’s post. But, if L.K. Advani wins the race, she might agree to be a part of the NDA. However, the Congress may also woo her to bolster its smaller numbers since there is every possibility of the AIADMK out-running the tainted DMK in the next election.

Along with the Congress’s decline, the present diminution of the prime minister’s stature means that Manmohan Singh has entered the twilight period of his career. The man who has been credited with starting the economic reforms as finance minister in 1991, turning India into a major regional player, is now very much a “lame duck” (notwithstanding his strenuous denial of the phrase) who is apparently waiting to hand over charge to the heir apparent, Rahul Gandhi.

Evidently, the division of power between Sonia and the prime minister – with the former looking after the party and the latter the government – has not worked. While Sonia has pushed ahead with her left-of-centre policy initiatives – rural employment, food security – Manmohan Singh has been unable, or unwilling, to pursue his right-of-centre pro-market policies despite occasional promises to do so. For instance, he is now chasing the will-o’-the-wisp of a consensus among all parties about foreign direct investment in the retail sector and insurance industry.

As a result, not only is investment falling, but even Indian industrialists are looking to invest abroad. To make matters worse, inflation is showing no signs of declining, with the result that the ordinary people, angry as they are over the various scams, are becoming increasingly disillusioned. Arguably, it is the economic slowdown which has encouraged Modi to throw his hat into the ring because he knows that his promise of rapid economic development, as in Gujarat, will have considerable appeal in the present atmosphere of economic despondency. But his chances are limited because of opposition from within the NDA, which will not like to alienate the minority voters, both Muslim and Christian, who have been wary of Modi ever since the 2002 Gujarat riots.

This is the reason why the Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United), maintains a safe distance from his Gujarat counterpart and has decided to back Advani’s rath yatra to complicate the scene for Modi. Which is one of the reasons why the latter stayed away from the BJP’s national executive meeting in Delhi. Furthermore, Modi’s candidature may not win the RSS’s approval in view of the Gujarat strong man’s olive branch to the Muslims during his recent fast in aid of “social harmony”.

If the Congress’s allies gain the upper hand in the UPA, the outlook for the economy will be gloomy because none of these regional and caste-based parties has much time for reforms. Instead, they will like to follow the old “socialistic” policies involving high taxes and high subsidies, which will reintroduce the snail-paced Hindu rate of growth. The loss of economic buoyancy will also mean that India will not have the gumption to stand up to an increasingly assertive China, as it has been doing recently with regard to oil explorations with Vietnam in the South China Sea. The scene, therefore, is depressing outside of politics as well. (IPA Service)