The Congress may console itself that it held none of these seats but it cannot ignore that it is the BJP, which is moving ahead. Also the name of the game in politics is to gain more ground besides protecting its won turf. In three of the four seats the BJP or its allies won. In Hisar, the Congress performed miserably. The Congress-NCP lost the polls in prestigious Kadakvasala. In Sivan it was the ruling JD (U) BJP which won the seat while in Telengana the TRS bagged the seat as expected.

The party has to learn a lesson or two from the high profile bye polls in Hisar. It was the wrong candidate and internal fighting within the Congress, which was responsible for the poor show, and not team Anna or the tough fight put up by the rival candidates who represented two former chief ministers. Had the Congress given the ticket to a new young face, it might have saved the embarrassment of losing the deposit. But the Congress chose a candidate with tainted past, which did not go well with the electorate. He lost deposit despite the Chief Minister putting all his weight behind the candidate. The other thing is the Anna effect; Did he really have any influence with the voters? Had Anna suggested to the voters to support Ajay Chautala or Bishnoi, the credit would have gone to him but Anna was only canvassing in a negative way and therefore it was the legacy of Bhajan Lal and the BJP support which helped Bishnoi win with a huge margin. As Bishnoi claims the Congress was nowhere in the picture as the fight was between him and Ajay Chautala.

The party also has to learn a lesson from Andhra Pradesh, a Congress citadel, which returned 33 members from the state to Lok Sabha making it possible for the UPA 2 to come back to power. In the 2009 polls it was the Congress, which did creditably and the TRS lost miserably even in Telengana. The region has been agitating for a separate state and the movement is seen from the ground. It is the centre’s vacillation on creation of a separate Telengana and lack of local leadership, which should be blamed for the poor show. If Lok Sabha polls were held tomorrow, the Congress may not even get ten seats.

The Sivan defeat could be seen as the continuation of the Congress rout in Bihar as nothing has been done to rejuvenate the party. The Bihar Congress is almost dead with no one to bring it back to life. The ruling JD (U)-BJP has much to cheer about the results

The Kadakvasala result in Maharashtra may be seen more as a setback to the NCP than the Congress as it shows Sharad Pawar’s waning influence in his backyard. Still it is an indication of things to come in future.

No doubt winning and losing is part of the game but the political strategy should be constantly to improve the situation and arrest the slide. No doubt the Congress spin masters have come up with reasons for the defeat but the Congress workers are confused at these danger signals.

Soon after the bye poll results were announced, veteran Congress leader Pranab Mukherjee admitted that it was a bad thing and the party would analyze the reasons. The fact is that the Congress has given up the practice of analyzing its failure for a long time. The Congress Working Committee, the highest Congress body, has not thought it fit to go into the mixed results or take corrective actions for years. Even a humiliating defeat in Assembly polls in Bihar had not been discussed threadbare. The party has also not done any soul searching like it did in Panchmarhi or Shimla. There is no effort to analyze why the party is going down the slide after the spectacular victory in 2009 and why it has lost the goodwill within two and a half years. One reason could be that the party has lost connection with the common man who is suffering from high inflation and shocking number of scams involving crores of rupees. The second is lack of local leadership. The third is the selection of wrong candidates. The fourth is the communication gap between the rulers and the people. The fifth is internal quarrels and groupism, which was evident in Hisar. The Congress not only has to go into the reasons for this failure but also to find out ways and means of earning back the goodwill before the next general elections.

Nobody expects the Congress to do a hat trick in the next elections as the anti incumbency factor would be too strong to fight. But if it wants to put its best foot forward, the party should think of improving its image in the states it is ruling and secondly find alternate states to cover up the shortfall, which may occur if no corrective actions are taken. Its popularity deficit is growing and this needs to be tackled. With just two and a half years away for the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, even now it is not too late to begin this exercise. (IPA Service)