The sliding popularity rating figures must worry his campaign managers. If he wins, Obama will be the first president since Gerald Ford to do so with approval rating below 47 per cent. Leaving aside Jimmy Carter, Obama has lowest approval ratings in more than thirty years. History shows that of the last eight presidents except George Bush and Jimmy Carter, all others got a second term which cheers the Obama managers that he would most likely win the presidency despite the gloomy economic scene and the mid term poll disaster last year.

Obama’s campaign is already a far cry from the “change” crusade that helped him win in 2008 polls. Obama himself admitted in California last month that “It’s not going to be as sexy. It’s not going to be as new.” The country’s stubborn unemployment rates and the crisis in the financial market could mean that people are far more likely to vote next November with the economy foremost in their minds.

Observers point out that the 2012 polls will cost more than $1 billion but the campaign reports offer a complicated financial picture. In the current election cycle, the President is said to have lost millions of dollars from his former donors in Democratic strongholds. A recent Associated Press analysis points out thousands of his supporters who gave Obama hundreds of dollars in the early stages of his campaign four years ago have not offered him similar amounts this time. This lack of enthusiasm from his donors shows that all is not well for the president. Still it does not mean that the campaign is hurt for cash as the president has raised more than $70 million for his re election way ahead of his rivals in the Republican Party.

The fact that Obama’s rating has slumped to 41 per cent in a recent Gallup poll should worry the Obama managers. Since World War II, no president has won reelection with a Gallup poll approval rating of less than 48 percent. Americans are currently in a sour mood and a staggering 74 percent in a New York Times/CBS poll last month said their country was headed in the wrong direction. So, Obama is vulnerable to unforeseen disasters over the next 12 months, There is no doubt that Obama and his party will have to work hard to retain his supporters as well as win the swing voters in his favor.

Secondly the present election scene is different as compared to his 2008 campaign. Then he was an unknown personality facing Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic nomination. This time he is running unchallenged and has no Primaries or caucus to face. The third is that Obama is seeking re- election without the” fatigue” factor as the incumbent president normally suffers the longer his party is in power.

The direction of the economy over the next year is also a factor which could make or mar the chances of his re election. The Congressional Budget Office predicts 8.5 percent unemployment in 2012, meaning many people will still be feeling the heat of recession.

The campaign managers hope that if there are signs of a reviving economy, people may still favor Obama as they did for Nixon, Reagan, Eisenhower and Truman. The other unknown factor is the identity of the Republican nominee which could make a huge difference. Obama’s campaign managers claim that his lead over the Republican probables is his strong point. The Republican nominee, whoever he is, will seek to make the election a referendum on Obama’s failure to make deep cuts in unemployment. The advantage for Obama is that the seven Republican hopefuls are trying to destroy each other with the result no strong candidate has emerged so far. There is a joke doing the rounds about the seven dwarfs and the Snow white. Even in the election debates, they are at a disadvantage as Obama shines in contrast. The minus side is everything else – unemployment, disposable income growth, the national mood, history, political logic and economic malaise.

It is clear that the President not only has to retain his supporters but also try and win over new groups.

What is Obama’s campaign strategy for the 2012 polls? Since his “change” theme has been successfully tried out last time, he has chosen a new strategy concentrating on one-to-one relationships. 'We're reaching out. Not on a general basis, but on a one-to-one basis.' claim his managers.

Secondly, Obama has little choice but to go negative. Obama’s team claims the president is more in tune with the middle classes than any of his possible opponents: The reality that there is no real good front runner should make it a bit easier since the president has shown he is a leader in the world. The campaign also highlights his record in liquidating terrorists, including Osama bin Laden as proof of leadership mettle, though foreign policy is down the list of voters. Also President Obama has fully utilised the military options available and has shown calm leadership capabilities with the Congress.

Thirdly the American politics has seen presidents promoting their personal side, perhaps even more so in the Internet age to connect with voters. With the country divided over his policies and worried about the economy, Obama may need to rely on his likability more than most. The managers are depending on the president's 'regular guy' appeal. He has shown his more playful side at fundraisers, joking about things people can relate to turning 50 and watching his hair get a little greyer. In a recent bus tour through North Carolina and Virginia, the president surprised lunchtime crowds at small-town restaurants and barbecue joints. Obama talked with Jay Leno on 'The Tonight Show' about his trip to a popular chicken and waffle house in Los Angeles. The president also joked about his wife Michelle Obama's penchant for handing out healthy Halloween treats.

But Republicans believe they have a winning case and charge Obama’s populist calls for higher taxes on the rich smack of class warfare. The republicans first have to find a strong candidate to fight the President and secondly, come with solutions for the gloomy economic scenario. So far it is advantage Obama. Of course a year is too long in politics and anything may happen. (IPA Service)