Ironically, there is no one she can blame for this turn of events, except for — who else — the CPI(M). And this time with good reason. And it is not as though the CPI(M) has been queering her pitch with the Congress , either.

As anyone who has had to participate in an alliance with Ms Banerjee’s party will testify — one should ask leaders like Mr, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Mr, L.K. Advani! — the experience can be trying in the extreme. The souls of most men are subjected to the severest possible stress. The tenure of the alliance, long or short, always generates reams of bad news. It will be remembered, if at all, for its roller-coaster nature. Leaders close to her ended up rediscovering new meanings in the commonplace observation, ”Things are not what they seem.”

The doughty lady believes in riding her luck. So far she has mostly ended up gaining politically from joining an alliance or quitting it, except once, prior to the 2001 State assembly polls. Clearly, she knows a thing or two about politics that others don’t. There is a certain method in her apparent madness.

The TMC-Congress alliance was always going to be an uncomfortable one. Both parties are led by shrewd, determined, politically wise women leaders. Both leaders share a flair for handling effectively their political opposition, within and outside their parties.

Given these factors, the CPI(M) in opposition just did not stand a chance in Bengal. After the left parties withdrew their support for the UPA I Ministry over the Indo-US nuclear deal, both leaders joined forces and made it their priority to cut the left parties down to size.

With the CPI(M) out of the reckoning for the moment, it was a question of what happened next. The TMC understands the dependence of the Congress on its support at centre. On the other hand, the recent, prolonged price rise and the gigantic level of corruption has alienated common people to some extent from the UPA II Government.

Naturally with the possibility of general elections before 2014 looming large, the TMC, now seeking to spread its wings as a regional force, is rethinking as to whether it should stay on with the Congress in the long run. In any case, it plans to fight the coming panchayat elections, scheduled for 2013 but could be held before, on its own to consolidate its hold over rural Bengal.

And that can only mean cutting into the support base of the CPI(M) and the Congress. CPI(M) leaders admit that putting up candidates in some parts of Bengal may prove difficult. The Congress enjoys some support in North and central Bengal districts, but there are far more seats in the more populous south Bengal districts.

In some ways the Congress will be fighting for its survival in the panchayat polls, if it goes it alone. Strange as this may seem, the party has really no leaders big or charismatic enough to take on the challenge posed by Ms Banerjee and her resurgent TMC. The only option before it, if only to keep a hold its support base and its mass organisations together, is through the path of agitations. No wonder is has opted for this course, protesting against the attacks on party supporters by the TMC of late and against the empowerment of the executive in running panchayats.

As the TMC has reacted angrily, with Ms Banerjee virtually warning the Congress not to take things too far for the sake of the alliance, the Congress is also hitting back effectively. First, it has not made things easier for West Bengal by announcing any special financial accommodation for the cash-strapped state, reducing Ms Banerjee to near desperation.

Not only that, the nature of the confrontation — for it is certainly that between the two parties — has also changed. Earlier, whenever Ms Banerjee personally spoke to the Prime Minister or the Union Finance Minister regarding matters relating to the state, both men usually instructed their party men not to push things too far.

Not any more. Now even after Ms Banerjee complained bitterly to the Finance Minister Mr, Pranab Mukherjee about the recent aggressive statements and rallies by the state Congress against the TMC, senior state Congress leaders have continued their tirade. Adding insult to injury, even Union Ministers like Mr. Jairam Ramesh, whom no one can accuse of bias against the state government, have joined the anti TMC fray with gusto.

The unkindest cut came from Ms Banerjee’s bete noire in the state Congress --incidentally, another lady. Mrs Deepa Das Munshi, Congress MP, tore into Mrs Banerjee after her warning to the Congress. If the Congress could save the UPA I even after 61 Left MPs withdrew support, what chance would a party have of bringing down the UPA II Ministry with only 19 MPs, she told a Congress rally.

Not a good omen for the TMC or its leader. There has been no answer to this argument from Ms Banerjee or other TMC leaders, who may momentarily even rue the setback suffered by the left parties! The Congress is clearly telling them where they get off. The Congress is emboldened in this stand especially after the recent fiasco of Ms Banerjee’s comedown over the recent price increase in petrol. It did not heed her threats to quit.

In the days ahead, one can expect the centre to co-operate with the state and its economic requirements selectively and cautiously. The Congress is making it clear to the TMC that if it tries to dominate its alliance partner in future elections, the present tenure of the TMC-led Ministry may also be short, nasty and brutish. With “alliance partners” behave like this, where is the need for an opposition? (IPA Service)