Yeddyurappa, who has still not lost his hold on the powerful Lingayat community, has been sulking for the past one year, as the BJP leadership has not accommodated him despite several promises made by the Party chief and others who matter. The former chief minister, who failed to get back to power after being forced to quit in July last year following his indictment by the Lokayukta on charges of corruption in a mining scam, was particularly miffed that he was not accommodated even after the Karnataka High Court quashed the FIR in the mining case. He refused to attend the recent BJP national executive meeting at Surajkund, publicly criticized the BJP chief Nitin Gadkari, did not even meet the BJP leader Arun Jaitley when the latter was in Bangalore for resolving the Yediyurappa issue recently. He also joined the Cauvery water protests with the opposition, thus embarrassing the government.

As his frequent threats have not yielded any results so far, Yeddy is now planning to launch his regional party. In fact, he must have come to the conclusion after the party chief had told him bluntly that they have had enough of his tantrums and he can do what he likes.

Even after his declared intention to launch the party recently, his wavering about the date is surprising. First he said he did not want to make any damage to the chances of Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi and therefore he would announce the party after December 20, when the Gujarat elections would be over. There is no connection between the Gujarat elections and Yeddy’s breaking away.

Secondly, he has also declared that he would not destabilize the Shettar government and would not ask his supporters, including ministers, to quit the BJP.

This is indeed strange for any one who wants to break away from the party, unless he is not sure of his flock. Therefore, some in the BJP feel that he is still wavering and keeping the door open for negotiations. Moreover, Yeddyurappa also hopes that by December if things change and Narendra Modi emerges more powerful, the latter may speak for him and the party’s equation with Yeddyurappa may also change for the better.

What does the former chief minister want? He wants to become the chief minister, or, the state BJP president. Yeddyurappa is not looking to the present but to the future, particularly in the post poll scenario, when he could emerge stronger if he continues to be in the BJP. Hence he wants a free hand at the time of ticket distribution.

When he resigned after the court indictment, his nominee Sadanada Gowda was made the chief minister, but Yeddyurappa fell out within months, with the result that he was campaigning for the chief minister’s ouster. When Shettar, another important Lingayat leader, replaced Gowda, Yeddy was not reconciled, still eyeing the top post for himself. The BJP leadership is not in a mood to give in to his wishes.

What happens if Yeddyurappa launches his own party? It might become another small party, but the BJP will be the first to admit that it would be a big setback because Yeddyurappa continues to be a force in the state. He also has his clout among the Mutt heads, which have a lot of influence in the voters. It was he who had brought the BJP its first government in Karnataka. Despite all the allegations of corruption, his influence within his community has not waned. With three chief ministers changed during the past five years and the corruption charges against the former chief minister besides other scandals like the Reddy brothers mining scam have weakened the party and the administration. In fact, the BJP has no leader to match Yeddyurappa.

Secondly, Yeddyurappa’s calculations are such that no party will be in a position to form the government after the next Assembly polls. In that context, even if his party gets about 20 to 30 seats, he would be sought after for forming the government. He would have the choice to support the BJP or the Congress or even the JD(S) of the former Prime Minister Deve Gowda and become the kingmaker.

Thirdly, the BJP is also worried that beneficiary would be the Congress because Yeddyurappa’s party is likely to cut into the BJP votes. That is why the BJP is frowning at the way Yeddyurappa has been praising the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and meeting the Congress leaders secretly.

The former chief minister is also exploring the possibility of having a pre-poll alliance with the Praja Pragati Ranga (PPR), an umbrella body of nearly 16 organizations, including a couple of political parties.

The BJP leadership has come to a stage where it has no patience to deal with the likes of Yeddyurappa even though efforts will be on till the last minute to retain him. Several other regional leaders like Shankar Singh Vaghela, Kalyan Singh and Uma Bharti had left and except Vaghela others have come back to the parent body. While the BJP chief would like to pamper Yeddyurappa, the party is now reconciled to part company with the former chief minister. After all, the leadership had taken such risks earlier when Uma Bharti left and it ultimately proved to be to its advantage. Even Kalyan Singh is coming back. (IPA Service)