Different bodies have variously estimated Bangladesh’s future power demands. But all agree that in the next twenty years, the demand will go up steeply. According to a paper prepared by the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, the energy demand will grow in the next eight years from 7005 MW in 2012 to 11,770 MW in 2020. (In 2009, total power generation was 4700 MW). Per capita energy consumption is 136 KWh in Bangladesh, which is one of the lowest in the world. Nearly sixty percent of the population does not have access to electricity. Bangladesh proposes to spend about $5.88 billion to increase power generation by another 5000 MW.

A report drawn up by the Nuclear Power and Energy Division (NPED) of the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) says the country now generates 8055 MW of power (Public Sector 4355 MW plus Private Sector 3650 MW). The maximum demand so far served was 6066 MW on March 22, 2012. Power demand estimates made by the NPED are: 10,283 MW in 2015; 17,304 MW in 2020; 25,199 MW in 2025; and 33,708 MW in 2030.

Bangladesh’s coal reserve has been estimated at 2,527 million tonnes. Most of it is concentrated in four fields – Jamalganj (1000 mt), Khalaspir (450 mt), Phulbari (400 mt) and Barapukuria (300 mt). But there is a snag. It is yet to be determined how much of this coal – and of what quality – will actually be available for power generation. A joint feasibility study by the Bangladesh Government and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) was proposed some time ago but it is not known when it will be completed.

This drives Bangladesh to develop alternative sources of energy. The idea of nuclear power generation has assumed importance in this context. In fact the ‘idea’ of nuclear power generation in Bangladesh goes as far back as 1961 – when it was East Pakistan. The site selected was Rooppur (in Pabna district in the northwest of the country) and it is here that eventually the first nuclear power plant is going to come up. The actual site at Rooppur was selected two years later, in 1963. But then nothing more happened. The project went into limbo.

The idea was revived in 2007 when the BAEC proposed to set up two 500 MWe power plants at Rooppur by 2015. The cost estimated was $1 billion for a 400 MWe unit and $1.5 to 2 billion for a 1000 MWe unit. China offered funding for the project in 2008, but nothing much seemed to have happened afterwards.

In early 2009, Russia came up with a formal proposal to build a nuclear power plant. In May that year, Bangladesh signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia under which a 1000 MWe project would be set up at Rooppur at a cost of $2 billion. In 2010, Bangladesh and Russia entered into agreement, which laid the legal basis for civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries. Construction is to begin in 2013.

On November 2, 2011, the final agreement was signed with the Russian firm Rosatom for supplying the nuclear fuel and taking back the spent fuel. Rosatom’s Atomstroyexport division will be the contractor for the project. The project will be under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). As Russia will take back the entire quantity of spent fuel, Bangladesh will not have to face the problem of disposal of the highly radioactive nuclear waste. Bangladesh intends to generate 5000 MWe of nuclear power by 2030, which is quite ambitious. India’s nuclear power generation, after so many years, is still around 5000 MWe.

The uneven development of Bangladesh economy is brought out by the fact that while agriculture accounts for only 18.4 percent of the GDP, as high as 54 percent of the people are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Industry contributes 28.6 percent, while services account for 53 percent of the GDP. However, the transition of Bangladesh from an agrarian economy to an industrial one is going on, though at a slow pace. As industries grow and agriculture is modernized, the demand for power will also grow.

This offers an opportunity for India to help Bangladesh. In February this year, a power purchase agreement was signed by the Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Ltd (VVNP), a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC, with the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), under which NTPC will export 250 MW of power to Bangladesh. The transmission system for this is expected to be commissioned by July next year. The possibility of augmenting the quantum of power supply should be explored, to the mutual advantage of the two neighbours. (IPA Service)