Since Madhya Pradesh came into being in 1956, the state has been ruled under the leadership of either the Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party, including its earlier avatar, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh. The Congress was in power from 1956 to 1967, 1972-77, 1980 to 1989 and 1993-2003. The opposition parties were in power from 1967-72, 1977-80 and 1990-92. From 2003 till now, the BJP is ruling the state on its own.

The 2013 elections are very crucial for both the BJP and the Congress. If BJP wins in 2013, MP will join the ranks of states like Gujarat and Chhattisgarh, where the BJP is in power for more than a decade.

At present, both the parties have started preparations for the next elections. Weighing various factors, it can be safely stated that the BJP is in a better position. In view of the fact that elections are only a year away, the BJP has launched preparations both on the administrative and the political level. There are several factors which put BJP on a better footing. The most important being the unchallenged leadership of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. If everything goes well, the 2013 Assembly election will be fought under the leadership of Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

The same, though, may not be true about Prabhat Jha, who is the president of the state BJP. His term expires in January 2013. The extension in his term will depend on the attitude of the RSS. While Chauhan enjoys complete patronage of the RSS, the same cannot be said about Jha. In Shivraj Singh Chauhan, the RSS has found an obedient Chief Minister. RSS attaches great importance to Madhya Pradesh. That explains the reason for the frequent visits of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and other important functionaries of the RSS to Madhya Pradesh. Though Shivraj Singh Chauhan himself is not involved in factional feuds within the BJP there are several areas in the state where the party leaders are neck-deep in factional rivalry. The most important of such areas is Indore which has been the citadel of Sangh Parivar. BJP in Indore is a divided into two major factions. One faction is led by Kailash Vijayvargiya, a powerful member of Shivraj's cabinet. The other faction is led by Sumitra Mahajan, who is five-time BJP Lok Sabha member from Indore.

Many leaders of Indore allege that Vijayvargiya commands a battalion of musclemen, most of them having criminal record. This factionalism is badly affecting the stability of the party in Indore which is regarded as the industrial capital of Madhya Pradesh. This and factionalism in various other parts of the state would affect the performance of the party during elections.

More than factionalism, the BJP's fortunes may be affected by the failure of the party to achieve several developmental targets. Top among such failures is to fulfill the target of building quality roads.

Roads in the state are in a bad shape. This complaint was made by many Ministers during the Cabinet meeting held on October 19. The bad condition of roads has become a major irritant. Ministers, including finance Minister Raghavji, Gopal Bhargava, Ajay Visnoi, Anoop Mishra, Laxmi Kant Sharma and Archana Chitnis, while expressing concern over poor condition of the roads warned that it may affect the election prospects of BJP. After listening to the grievances of ministers Chief Minister asked the Public Works Department to complete the repairs of damaged roads by the month of June.

It may be recalled that the BJP, before and during the elections of 2003 and 2008 gave firm assurance to the people of the state to solve the problems of electricity, roads and water if voted to power. But during the period of almost one decade during which BJP was continuously in power, the party has not managed to fulfill any of these three major promises. Besides bad roads, the state is also facing crisis of electricity shortage. The state is also facing serious problem of corruption among government servants. Several raids on the houses of government servants including low grade employees have led to recovery of movable and immovable property worth crores. If the BJP wants to win over loyalty of voters it will have to act very fast and effectively not only on road and electricity fronts but also against the corrupt elements both within the administration and the party.

But despite its shortcomings, the BJP does not face any challenge from its main opponent, Congress. At this juncture the Congress should have been in a very comfortable position politically. But instead of that, it is sinking deeper and deeper into the morass of factional feuds. A powerful faction of the Congress is up in arms against State Congress President Kantilal Bhuria.

Bhuria became Congress president after resigning from Central Cabinet. Bhuria, a tribal, is facing serious challenge from a faction of the party. A number of Congress MLAs and other party leaders camped in Delhi and met several top leaders to demand Bhuria's removal from the post of State President of the party. This group suspended its anti-Bhuria campaign till the Dussera festival and they are expected to resume their campaign in a day or two. Bhuria was the choice of Digvijay Singh. It is rumoured that anti-Bhuria campaign enjoys the blessings of Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia, both Central ministers.

Meanwhile, state Congress suffered another jolt when a two member bench of the Madhya Pradesh High Court in Indore directed the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to inquire into the alleged irregularities committed while constructing the Treasure Island Mall in Indore and submit a report within six months.

The mall-cum-multiplex on MG Road, among the city's most popular destinations, has been shrouded in controversy ever since it was built.

Two-time Chief Minister and current AICC general secretary Digvijay Singh also came under the scanner on the issue but his name was dropped by the Economic Offences Wing (EOW) while submitting the charge sheet, which was later challenged by the petitioner.

In their order, Justice PK Jaiswal and Justice Moolchandra directed the CBI to investigate the issue on certain key points.

First, what is the significance of the code words 'X-299' in the proposal forwarded by the then chief minister Digvijay Singh to the then chief secretary AV Singh? In the note sheet in which the proposal had been prepared Digvijay Singh had written 'Reference Manish Kalani' and under this he had written 'X-299'.

Later, in his statement to the EOW, the then under-secretary of housing and environment department, CB Patwar had said that 'X-299' meant that the matter was of top priority.

Secondly, if 'X-299' meant giving top priority, then what was the role of the then chief minister, the then housing minister Rakesh Chaturvedi, AV Singh and the other senior officials in expediting the matter?

Spread over one-lakh square feet, the Treasure Island multiplex was completed in 2005. Originally it was a joint venture between MP Housing Board and EWDPL-a firm jointly owned by Kalani Brothers (Indore) Pvt. Limited (KBIPL) and Padma Homes Pvt Limited (PHPL), owners of the plot of land where the multiplex is located.

Social activist Mahesh Garg had filed a complaint with the state Economic Offences Wing in 2009 alleging that the mall was illegally built on a residential plot of one lakh square feet with undue concessions from the state government.

It is for the first time that an enquiry has been ordered against Digvijay who ruled the state for ten years. Before Digvijay Singh, nobody in the state had the privilege of occupying the Chief Minister's office for ten years. After BJP came to power in 2003 the then Chief Minister Uma Bharati made serious allegations against Digvijay Singh but no enquiry was ordered to verify the veracity of the allegations. There is no doubt that Digvijay Singh happens to be most powerful leader of the state congress and is also capable of meeting the challenges of BJP. But the High Court order will have a negative impact on his influence. (IPA Service)