On the basis of these yardsticks, the outcome, whatever it is, of the November 4 Himachal Pradesh poll needs to be analysed.

The state of the ruling BJP and its main opponent Congress is far from satisfactory. Both are plagued by factionalism. Both are facing rebel candidates, many of whom can damage their parent party’s electoral prospects. The BJP stands to suffer most as the Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP), formed by former state BJP chief Maheshwar Singh and some other dissident leaders, will dent the BJP’s support base. HLP has joined hands with CPM and CPI to forge the Himachal Lok Morcha, which is contesting the elections under a seat-sharing arrangement.

The BJP would have been in real trouble had its central leadership not succeeded in managing a compromise between the Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal and the party’s senior vice-president Shanta Kumar. Kangra district with largest number of seats is Shanta Kumar’s stronghold.

The health of the Congress is also not in a better state. The central leadership had to bring the former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh back as the state party chief despite the allegations of corruption against him in the infamous CD case. He is the party’s only leader who enjoys statewide influence and is capable of posing a formidable challenge to the BJP. He has patched up with Leader of the Opposition Vidya Stokes and has also brought his bête noire Vijay Mankotia, the man allegedly behind the CD case back into the party. He, however, faces opposition from his adversaries led by the former PCC chief Thakur Kaul Singh.

Chief Minister Dhumal had declared development as the main plank for the party’s election campaign. No doubt, the pace of development, which had been going on even during the previous governments, picked up under the Dhumal government. But in certain fields, like roads, the conditions have actually worsened.

Roads are the carriers of civilization and are the capillaries of the economy, especially of hill states. But the condition of roads has perhaps never been as worse as now, and has had severe fall out on the Himachal’s economy. The apple growers of the country’s biggest apple producing state have been suffering losses due to transportation problems caused by the abysmal condition of the roads.

For returning to power, the ruling party banked upon its development agenda. But the development issue has gone into the background and corruption has become a major election issue. The BJP which has been targeting UPA for its scams and Virbhadra Singh for his alleged acts of corruption has been under attack from the Congress and its own party dissidents for the “rampant corruption” and encouragement given “to land sharks” by the ruling leadership.

Till recently, the Congress was in the dock due to the UPA government’s mega scams, which were expected to damage the party’s electoral prospects in Himachal. What added fuel to the party’s corruption fire is the latest controversy over the amounts allegedly paid by a steel company to VBS when Virbhadra Singh was the Steel Minister. He has, however, denied the charge saying he was not the VBS.

The expected damage to the Congress’ electoral prospects due to the corruption charges seems to have been dented by the major controversy on the BJP national president Nitin Gadkari’s dubious funding to companies floated in the name of non-existent addresses or Gadkari’s personal staff including drivers. Some central BJP leaders have defended Gadkari saying that he is prepared to face an inquiry into the charges against him. But the question is: Does Gadkari’s readiness to face an inquiry absolve him of the allegations and moral responsibility as the head of the party? The BJP’s stand that since Gadkari expressed his readiness to face an inquiry that he would not resign exposes the party’s double standards on the corruption issue. BJP leaders always demand resignation of its opponents and their governments even before an inquiry is ordered whenever corruption charges are leveled against them.

What surprises many admirers of Shanta Kumar who has a clean image is that even he has compromised with those very “corrupt forces” whom he has been criticizing. Perhaps it was to erase this impression that he had to recently declare that his “crusade against corruption in public life will continue till the end.”

BJP, which had already lost its title of “the party with a difference,” now stands equated with Congress on issues of corruption and double standards.

While corruption issue occupies the centre-stage, the newly elected ruling party will be faced with some major problems, the biggest being the state’s deepened financial crisis. During the BJP’s five-year rule, the state has sunk deeper in debt-trap mainly because of its populist decisions. Its debt has risen by nearly Rs.8,000 crore, from Rs. 21,242 core in 2007-08 to Rs. 29,000 core in 2012-13, and the committed expenditure has gone up by over Rs.6,400 core — from Rs. 6,557 crore to Rs.12,984 crore. The revenue from the state’s own resources rose only by Rs. 1,700 core — from Rs. 5,330 crore to Rs. 7,059 crore during the period.

The strategy adopted by various state governments including Punjab and Himachal Pradesh has been to grant freebies and sops to please voters and then charge the Centre with discriminating against the state in the grant of funds. The Dhumal government has also been following this strategy.

Among other major problems the new governing party will face is the poor state of infrastructure. The new government will have to pay special attention to improve the infrastructure sector.

It is always hazardous to make prediction about polls outcome. But the above analysis of the situation will make it a Herculean task for BJP to fulfill its ambition of repeating Punjab in Himachal Pradesh. (IPA Service)