Russia is not a major player in the region but it has now started pushing its agenda and following APEC summit in Vladivostok, Russia has stepped up its engagement with the ASEAN nations and participating more effectively in both multilateral and bilateral discussions on trade and security. Russian Government now considers it very important to effectively participate in EAS and ASEAN Regional Forum and the official position is that this participation is based on non-aligned principles, oriented on supremacy of international law, equality and transparency.

The US President Barrack Obama will be participating in the Cambodia meeting after his latest victory and a confident Obama will act as a strong bulwark against the Chinese President Hu Jintao who is not expected to follow any new policy action in the EAS summit in view of his coming retirement. The US is expected to put some pressure on China on the maritime security issue and it will give tacit support to Japan in pursuing its anti-China position. It is to be seen how the other nations take the position vis a vis the dispute between Japan and China.

As regards India, it is more concerned on the trade and investment issues. India is worried at the emergence of a new trade grouping of the East Asian nations which will have domination by China and will not be in India’s trade interests. The issue has been discussed in details at the Indian commerce and the external affairs ministries in the context of the 7th East Asia Summit.

Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh will be attending the summit as also ASEAN-India Summit which will be held on November 18. ASEAN and India are marking 20 years of their dialogue partnership and ten years of annual Summit level partnership this year. The 10th ASEAN-India Summit will make a close review of the relations both political and economic since the last Summit in Bali in 2011. The leaders will also decide on the details of the Special ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit which will be hosted by India in New Delhi on December 20 and 21 this year.

The ASEAN leaders will be getting the report of the ASEAN-India Eminent persons group which was set up last year to give recommendations on the future direction of the ASEAN-India partnership. At the East Asia Summit, Dr. Manmohan Singh will be exchanging views with his counterparts from 17 other countries on regional issues for facilitating a better understanding among the Asian neighbours.

India-China trade is presently on a big upward swing and indications are that by 2015, the trade volume between the two countries will reach US$ 100 billion. But the concern for India is that the trade gap is rising fast and in 2011-12, it is as high as US$ 39 billion. At the ASEAN- India summit, there is a possibility of formation of the grouping-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that the ASEAN is trying to create with countries that have bilateral trading agreements with the ASEAN. India is not openly opposing this trading bloc and it is in fact keen to join this group to take advantage of the trading facilities available in other countries, but its apprehension is that this bloc will be so much dominated by China that the cheap Chinese goods will flood Indian markets at a much bigger scale.

Already the Indian commerce ministry has done a study on the nature of imports of the Chinese goods in the Indian market and the programme is to ensure the checking of such imports and pushing Indian exports. But once RCEP is set up, India will be under obligation to bring down its import duties further as per the policy of RCEP and this will give further opportunities to the Chinese manufacturers to dump their cheap products in India and it will be impossible for India to prevent that dumping.

Indian officials also point out that once RCEP is formed, it may require India to increase its commitment to intellectual property rights, a move that could adversely hit the interests of the Indian drug companies which have already been producing low cost generic of patented medicines.

Dr. Manmohan Singh is heading the trade and economic relations committee of the Summit and the formation and parameters have to be decided by this committee before discussion by the full Summit. It will be embarrassing for the Indian PM to take a narrow India centric position since the other members might be interested in pursuing the proposal at this Summit itself. That is also the dilemma for the Indian delegation. India has to protect its trade interests but it can not do much to espouse its case against Chinese cheap imports since China will deny that. That is the big worry for the Indian government and they are looking at the diplomatic skill of the Prime Minister to salvage the Indian interests at the EAS meeting.

RCEP was endorsed at the 19th ASEAN Summit last year and is considered as an upgraded version of the East Asia free Trade Agreement and the Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia that were discussed earlier. Most of the ASEAN members are keen to get it formalized at the coming Summit.

As regards Russia, the government strictly steers the course on large integration in political and economic processes of ASEM and EAS. Russia has set dialogue and cooperation with leading Asia Pacific region states on regional security and collaboration. This is the way for Russian Federation to draw US and its allies to constructive dialogue, restraining Washington’s course on consolidation of its own military and political alliances with the countries of the region in the framework of resisting growing Chinese influence.

Experts consider perspectives of multilateral cooperation development between Russia and countries of the region to be vast and mutually beneficial. There are certain benefits from cooperation with Moscow as long-term and regular raw materials supply, mutual projects in the sphere of exploration and field development, oil and gas pipeline construction, projects in hydro and nuclear power engineering sphere, exploration of alternative energy sources and use of power saving technologies.

Considering instability of world raw hydrocarbon market and growing oil prices, Russia, who possesses vast energy resources, may seriously stabilise economic development of the countries of the region. Broadening of cooperation with Russian Federation would have allowed East Asia countries to reduce dependency on raw materials supply from conflict zones and develop long-term programme of mutually advantageous cooperation.

The EAS deliberations at Phnom Penh are expected to find out a meeting ground for all these differing strategies to facilitate increasing political and economic collaboration. It may be a difficult task but it has to be done. (IPA Service)