The recurring ethnic conflict between the Buddhists and Rohingiya Muslims of Bangladeshi origin in the gas-rich Rakhine province, is only one of the means currently being utilised by the US and its allies to prevent Myanmar’s possible emergence as a strong, economically prosperous country.

This prognosis comes from noted political analyst and researcher Dr Christof Lehmann, a specialist on Myanmar and South Asia region. He cites primarily economic reasons for the recent revival of Western interest in Myanmar, the victim of crippling sanctions for nearly two decades.

However, the new West-backed script for Myanmar’s future involves, first, a spell of severe internal conflict. This would be capped eventually by a regime change, displacing the nationalist pro-democracy ruling party and its leadership. This new model of West-sponsored political intervention, preceded by prolonged domestic violence or civil war, has been “effective” from Kosovo to Libya and Nepal, according to Lehmann. A more pro-West dispensation at Naypitaw would be more amenable to transfer the country’s large energy assets—Myanmar has the 10th largest gas reserves in the world—for advanced countries. The conclusion some time ago of an agreement between China and Myanmar, ensuring an uninterrupted supply of gas and oil from the Bay of Bengal to China for 30 years, is seen a major setback by the pro West cartel in this context.

The US, on the other hand, had no objection to the proposed gas pipeline between Myanmar, Bangladesh and India. It is another matter that it never materialised and Chinese diplomacy won the day. Also, the establishment of a pro-West regime in Myanmar would be one step closer to achieve an effective encirclement of China, says Lehmann.

Indian analysts cannot help wondering what would be India’s stand if the script turns to be a reality almost at its doorstep. A Kolkata-based analyst familiar with Lehmann’s arguments reasons, “It is too early to say that his concerns are well founded. But it cannot be ignored that unlike other developed countries, the US has not yet announced any major investments in the energy or other sectors in Myanmar. Nor has it lifted all its sanctions. And even other European developed countries, after initially rushing to explore investment options, are now complaining of language problems, lack of infrastructure, absence of corporate culture, untrained manpower, poor law and order situation, etc., in Myanmar. This tapering of interest suggests a cautious wait and watch policy. Clearly, most countries are waiting to see the resolution of the ongoing conflict involving the Rohingiyas, before deciding to take the plunge.”

As for India, for quite some time now, under Dr Manmohan Singh as its Prime Minister, the country has not only moved closer to the US, but entered into a strategic partnership with it, much to the chagrin of China, the disillusionment of Russia and the SCO bloc in Central Asia. As the political fallout from the recent Rohingiya-Muslim violence demonstrated some weeks ago, ethnic violence in Myanmar can disrupt life in Bangladesh, parts of India and Sri Lanka, in the form of tensions, rumours, panic exodus, even sporadic violence resulting in casualties.

Since opening up its economy to the outside world, several large corporations, think tanks, NGOs, HR groups and UN agencies have moved into Myanmar. According to Lehmann, “They establish a loosely associated network consisting of new local players and well established international players, who are notorious for exploding targeted nations into ethnic violence. Their advocacy for freedom, democracy and human rights has left a trail of ethnic violence, death and devastation from Bosnia and Kosovo to Nepal.” He specifically mentions George Soros as one of the “players” and points to the activities of organisations like Open Society foundation, Mizzima News, Burma News International and others run by him in this connection. Myanmar’s oil and gas pipeline to China, its significant geostrategic position and the sheer wealth of its resources marks it as the next target for “globalization” and the encirclement of China, he fears.

From Ivory Coast to Libya, and currently in Syria, recent eruptions of ethnic conflicts and violence have been condemned by spokesmen for civil rights and political stability, eventually to be settled through armed intervention by US/NATO forces. The objective is to install a pro-West regime. In the context of Myanmar, Lehmann for the first time categorises both Bangladeshis and the Rohingiyas as mere pawns in the much larger business of regime change.

Though Bangladesh refuses to acknowledge them, majority of experts see Rohingiya Muslims primarily as Bangladeshis, in terms of their language, religion and culture. Originally, they went or were driven to the southwest coastal areas of Myanmar from 1943 onwards, because of riots and civil disturbances.

Following a brief spell of secularism after its formation in 1971, Bangladesh came under the influence of a strongly anti-secular Islamic elite that pervaded every sphere of life and governance. Over this process, religious and ethnic minorities in Bangladesh like the Hindus, Buddhists or tribals had little say or control, according to most observers. The country attracted investments in education and culture from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which had their own agenda in pushing ahead with the aggressive Wahabi brand of Islam.

During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, by then a hotbed for radical Islam, sent thousands of “volunteers,” trained and paid by the Pak-based ISI or fundamentalist Arab agencies, to fight “a holy jihad against the infidels.” The US intelligence also collaborated in such efforts with the ISI and the DGFI, the Bangladeshi Intelligence wing. In Pakistan and Afghanistan, they underwent arms and sabotage training under the Mujahideens, and later, the terrorist apparatus of Osama Bin Laden.

The Lehmann narrative accuses Bangladeshi intelligence of systematically sending large numbers of Rohingiyas to sparsely guarded energy rich Rakhine areas from 1978 onwards. They were well received by the earlier batch of Rohingiyas who had settled there by then and had grown considerably in numbers. Interestingly, Saudi-based organisations, like the Rabita and others, had also been active among the Rohingiyas, sending them financial and other help for “educational and cultural” development. This led to local tensions with the Buddhists. Myanmar often took action against Bangladeshi diplomats involved in for their activity among the Rohingiyas.

Experts argue that the idea was to set up a Rohingiya dominated area in Myanmar’s territory, with an eye to securing its rich energy resources. Bangladeshi ruler Zia-ur Rahman was an enthusiastic champion of this clandestine project, backed by the CIA, which had little sympathy for the pro-Chinese Burmese administration. Zia appointed Brigadier General Nurul Islam Sishu to carry out political subversion within the Burmese territory.

Bangladesh’s incorporation into the Jihadist international network was effective to the point where its citizens were involved in terror strikes, killings and sabotage in Aceh (Indonesia), Kashmir and other parts of India, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Myanmar, Egypt, and Tajikistan. And the regime, headed by BNP’s Khaleda Zia, who chose the Jamat-e-Islami and other communal organisations as her allies, initially encouraged such extremist trends, before coming under intense diplomatic pressure after the 9/11 incidents. (IPA Service)