On the face of it, after the exit of Trinamool Congress, UPA-2's numbers, along with outside supporters, cross the 300 mark in Lok Sabha. But the government managers are quite nervous given the deepening disorientation gripping the Manmohan Singh government. The problem is more in Rajya Sabha where the government is in a minority.

The early poll rumors gained ground soon after the Congress Party setup a campaign committee headed by Rahul Gandhi 18 months ahead of polls. It is so unlike the Congress to do so because the party does not believe in putting the horse before the cart. The fact that the high command has given a glimpse of who would be the important leaders to assist Rahul Gandhi shows the future line up. While political instincts should make the party think twice about cutting short its term in view of the serious scams the government and the party are facing there are some who believe that the longer this government survived the lesser chances of its coming back. The political corridors are full of rumors that after next year’s budget the party may opt for polls. There are others who predict polls in the latter part of next year. It depends on a lot of things like the monsoon, the growth of the economy, the price rise, inflation and a lot of other issues.

The second reason is the release of the Samajwadi Party’s first list of 55 candidates the day after the announcement of Rahul heading the campaign committee. The SP is an ally of the UPA but an opponent of the Congress in UP. Mulayam Singh had bailed out the UPA a number of times earlier. It was his last minute decision to bail out the government, which saved the government after the left pulled out its support in 2008 on the Indo- US nuclear deal. The release of the first list of the SP has fuelled speculation that the SP chief may not guarantee his party’s support till the end of the current term.

The Left parties are also talking of elections. The CPI-M leaders have speculated that the polls may be advanced and asked the party workers to be ready. They argue that the Congress ruled states are not doing well and in some states like Andhra Pradesh there is instability. The Congress may go for early polls to cut their losses they feel.

The BJP too has been speculating about early polls but the saffron party does not want it because of the leadership crisis in the party and the scams facing its party chief. The demise of the Shiv Sena chief Balasaheb Thackeray has also plunged the Sena – BJP combine in Maharashtra in to a crisis where there is confusion about the two Senas. There is no much hope of attracting more NDA allies at this point.

The UPA allies are talking of early polls. Last month the NCP chief Sharad Pawar, while addressing his state level party convention, asked his workers to be prepared for mid-term elections in view of “unstable situation” at the Centre adding there was always a chance of political accidents.

The DMK chief Karunanidhi, who has been flexing his muscle on the issue of FDI has also asked his cadres to be ready for mid term polls. Karunanidhi has distanced himself from the Congress and has not allowed his party men to join the cabinet after the arrest of Communication minister A. Raja and his subsequent removal from the cabinet. He is also quite peeved about the arrest of his daughter Kanimozhi who spent months in jail on the 2 G spectrum case.

For all the possibility of the Congress going for early polls there are two crucial parties, who will play a critical role. The SP has 22 MPs and the BSP 21 and both are weighing their options. The polls may become a reality only when the government falls on the floor of the house on some issue and that depends on these two parties.

The government’s dependence on the SP and the BSP as well as smaller parties has increased after the Trinamool Congress quit the UPA. There are clear indications that the winter session is going to be stormy and the government needs every vote. Though these two parties have sounded the poll bugle, they have so far not given any indication of a possible withdrawal.

The Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee is not getting adequate support for brining a no confidence motion. The BJP and the Left are apprehensive that the motion may help the government to claim that it has endorsement of Parliament as the government is bound to mobilize the required number. The SP and the BSP may ultimately fall in line. Why then this atmosphere of hostility and uncertainty? Their strategy could be to keep the Congress on edge and to boost the morale of their cadres.

President Pranab Mukherjee put it succinctly when he was asked about the early polls “It is not a question of what I foresee. This is a question of how the leaders will behave, members will behave and the political parties will behave.” (IPA Service)