Interestingly, those who admire him include some big business tycoons, who have been favoured by him and they are openly lobbying for him. Even internationally Modi has travelled far from the days of the US denying him visa, to the prestigious Time magazine carrying him on its cover and the UK courting him for business now. He is portrayed for the good governance and development, the two fashionable terms, which are used to describe him today. Modi has cultivated even China.

With such a transformed image, Modi would like to come to national politics and become the prime ministerial candidate, as he feels saturated in Gujarat. If he is able to win the state for the third time in the 2012 Assembly polls, he will emerge glorified and if he manages to get even one seat more, then he would fight for the top job.

But things were not going the way Modi wanted. Insiders say that when he visited Nagpur some time ago and met the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, he had sought the Sangh Parivar’s support for projecting him as the prime ministerial candidate, so that his chances of winning became brighter. After Morarji Desai, there has been no prime minister from Gujarat and Modi wanted to ride on the Gujarati pride to win more seats. However, the RSS was cool to his overtures with the result he came back disappointed.

So the next best thing to do was to project his image by his own efforts. He has done this successfully so far by using the most advanced advertising techniques and spending huge money on the propaganda. Instead of his becoming the chief minister for the third time, the propaganda today is more about his prime ministerial chances. The media supporting Modi has not missed a single opportunity to pose a question to every BJP leader who visited Gujarat for poll campaign about the chances of Modi’s candidature. The BJP’s second-rung leaders, who are themselves aspiring for the job, had no choice than to give public support reluctantly. The Leader of the Opposition Sushma Swaraj’s statement that Modi was eminently qualified should be taken in this spirit and so that of the Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley. The chorus from others also is seen in this light.

Why is the BJP reluctant to name Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate despite all his plus points? The party is looking to the immediate task of winning the Gujarat elections. The party, demoralised by the exit of former Karnataka chief minister Yediyurappa and the scams hitting its party chief, is keen to get political mileage by winning Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat or at least one state. Some in the party fear that ‘Modi for PM‘ slogan may shift the focus, which is not conducive to the party. It will be a big gamble, especially when the BJP hopes to win on the poor performance of the UPA-II at the centre and also ride the anti-corruption tide after scams like the 2G spectrum, and the party clearly does not want the focus to shift to an individual who has the capacity to so starkly polarise.

Secondly, general elections are far away in 2014. When a week is said to be long in politics, 2014 is really too far. By that time, the political scenario can undergo major changes. Thirdly, the BJP is already paying the price for projecting the wrong candidate in 2009. Therefore, it may not do so now. Much needs to be done before zeroing in on Modi. The BJP and the RSS have not decided about the future of the BJP chief Nitin Gadkari, who is mired in controversies. His present term ends at the end of the month and there is still no final word about his second term. Furthermore, the second rung leaders should be brought around to accept Modi as their leader. This too has not been done so far.

Moreover, his biggest impediment to the political ascendancy comes from the NDA allies. He is not an Advani or a Vajpayee whom allies would accept.

Shiv Sena supremo Balasaheb Thackeray, before his death last month, had supported the candidature of Sushma Swaraj. The JD(U), the biggest NDA ally, is opposed to Modi and would not even allow him to campaign for the BJP during the Assembly elections earlier. The Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has always been critical of him and had made it amply clear that he is not acceptable. Despite being a national party, the BJP is almost no existent in the South, except Karnataka. The future appears to be for a coalition era and the BJP remains heavily dependent on its present and future allies who should accept Modi’s candidature.

Finally, Modi’s dream could be fulfilled only when the BJP gets 250 seats on its own, which is doubtful in the present scenario. Building a consensus within the BJP as well as within the NDA will be a huge problem otherwise.

For all purposes it is the media and Modi who are keeping the speculation alive. How long this can be sustained is to be seen. There is many a slip between the cup and lip and Modi should also be aware of it. (IPA Service)