The Congress may look for some division in the NDA camp, especially of the JD(U), but the Modi camp might go ahead with a well laid out strategy which will draw the support of a few regional parties including AIADMK and BJD and aspire to create a wave for a new government at centre focused on governance and development.

The Congress leadership has to aggressively combat this challenge from Modi and it will depend on how effectively the Manmohan Singh government can take measures to improve the economic situation and give an impression of having good governance. Elections to the eight states are due in 2013 and so the performance of the centre during this period will have a bearing on whether the BJP campaign is able to get momentum improving its fortunes in the coming assembly elections. It will also be equally important to what extent Rahul Gandhi as the leader of the campaign committee, is able to energize the Congress workers at the grass roots level and enthuse them for vigorous campaigning in favour of the Congress candidates in the state assembly elections in 2013.

What will be the role of the Left, especially the CPI-M in this political scenario when the BJP is nursing ambitions to stage a comeback to the centre in 2014 Lok Sabha elections?

The Communist Party of India (Marxist) is in a big dilemma over the formulation of its strategy for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The CPI-M which heads the Left Front of four parties including CPI, Forward Bloc and RSP, has a big stake in the 2014 elections as that will give it the opportunity to rejuvenate its ranks since its disastrous results in Lok Sabha elections in 2009 and in the state assembly elections in West Bengal and Kerala in 2011. The Left now has 24 members in the Lok Sabha out of which the CPI-M has got 16. In the last Lok Sabha, the Left front had 61 members out of which the CPI-M’s tally was 43. It was the biggest number for the Party in the history of Lok Sabha and this gave the CPI-M enormous clout in influencing the centre’s policies in the first UPA government elected after the 2004 polls. This continued till the Left withdrew its support from the Government in July 2008 on the India-US nuclear deal issue.

As of now, the CPI-M is unable to decide the core strategy as the political scenario in the country has changed drastically after the 2011 state assembly elections. In Parliament last week, the Left including the CPI-M fought bitterly the Congress on the FDI in multi brand retail issue and on its side voted the BJP and the Trinamool Congress- both its arch enemies. Thus the Party finds that on economic issues, it is fighting the Congress in the company of its enemies while fighting them on the political front outside. More embarrassing for the CPI-M is that the Trinamool Congress is trying to hijack all its pro-people agenda and the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is following a strategy to erode the support base of the CPI-M from its traditional districts on the basis of the same programmes which the CPI-M claimed to implement but did not do effectively in the state during its tenure.

West Bengal is the real battle ground for the CPI-M and here Trinamool is targeting the CPI-M as its main enemy. In 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the CPI-M got 9 seats in West Bengal as against the 26 seats received by it in 2004 elections. Out of the 15 seats received by the Left front in West Bengal in 2009 Lok Sabha elections, two seats each were received by the other three parties CPI, FB and RSP. The CPI-M has to increase its tally from West Bengal if it has to improve its position in Lok Sabha. Despite dissatisfaction in the urban areas, Mamata is taking care of the rural people and that may go against the CPI-M in the 2014 elections. The CPI-M can take on the Trinamool in some constituencies if it gets covert support from the Congress which is now a big adversary of the Trinamool in the state.

Herein lies the crux of the dilemma. The CPI-M is fighting the Congress on the economic polices and Trinamool is also doing the same. Trinamool is campaigning in the state against the economic policies of the centre much more than the CPI-M and the Left. The CPI-M has to fight for survival in the state and there is a common ground with the Congress of forging an understanding on the issue of fighting the authoritarian policies of the Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee. A good section of the West Bengal CPI-M is arguing that there can be an anti- authoritarian front with the Congress and the civil society to fight Trinamool and the understanding can be extended to the Lok Sabha elections either in a direct manner or in an indirect manner. In the recent weeks after the official withdrawal by Trinamool from the central government and the simultaneous withdrawal by the Congress from the Mamata led West Bengal government, there has been contacts and some common unofficial actions, but these have not been formalized. The CPI-M central leadership is yet to decide whether it should permit the West Bengal unit to have indirect understanding with the Congress to fight Trinamool for the Lok Sabha elections. Panchayats elections are due in Bengal in April/may 2013 and all the parties are preparing on their own. As of now, CPI-M led Left Front has an edge but this might change after the elections since Trinamool has improved its position in many districts after the last Panchayat elections in 2008 which got its reflections in 2009 Lok Sabha elections and 2011 assembly elections.

The CPI-M leadership will assess the results of panchayats next year and if it is seen that the Trinamool has further improved at the cost of CPI-M and it is possible to defeat Trinamool only through indirect understanding with the Congress, the course may be considered by the CPI-M leadership. It will be only Bengal specific since in Kerala, the fight is directly with the Congress for power. As regards other states, excepting Tripura where the CPI-M has got two seats, the party organization can not throw any big challenge to the Congress or BJP in any other state.

The CPI-M as per its policy document is to steer clear of both the Congress and the BJP, but the Party is afraid of the emergence of BJP due to the weakening of the Congress. The Left led by the CPI-M is not in a position to take initiative for forming a third front though the non-Congress non-BJP parties are regionally powerful. Mamata is taking the initiative and she is talking to the regional leaders. Since the CPI-M has lost its Lok Sabha strength and focusing on alternative programme, regional parties are not interested in any front with the Left at the moment. These regional parties like Samajwadi Party, BSP and even JD(U) are positioning for more clout in the post elections situation and they are working on a strategy which will give them more seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. There is no time for them to think for any alternative programme.

Thus, for the Left, the options are limited. The Left has to aggressively combat BJP to see that it can not stage a comeback to the centre in the 2014 elections. At the same time, it can not openly help the Congress in fighting BJP. The Congress policies have been too neo-liberal and the Manmohan leadership is implementing anti-people reforms with vengeance. At the same time, the Left has to be steadfast in fighting communalism and protecting the secular fabric of India. If Modi finally emerges as a the PM candidate around April/May next year, that will be the time when the Left leadership has to decide whether they can go soft with the Congress as a part of their strategy to keep the resurgent BJP led by Modi out of power in 2014 elections.(IPA Service)