Politically, it is a crucial year for both the BJP and the Congress, the two major parties leading the NDA and the UPA. There is likely to be change of guards in both parties. The question is whether the general elections could be held in 2013. This has been asked often during the past year because of the instability of the government after the Trinamool Congress walked out of the UPA-II. Regional satraps like the TMC chief Mamata Banerjee, Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, BSP chief Mayawati, Orissa chief minister Naveen Patnaik and Tamil Nadu chief minister Jayalalitha have been predicting 2013 general elections. Is the Congress party ready to face the polls? Overall, things are not looking good for the UPA or the NDA. While the government is facing scams, the NDA is shrinking slowly. It may further shrink on the Modi issue if the JD(U) decides to pull out. Both fronts may yield place to the regional groups who may think of forming a third alternative. The regional satraps are looking for an opportunity to unseat Congress. They may gang up together before the next elections but the biggest danger for their unity is their ego clash. With most of them nursing prime ministerial ambitions the unity may not lost long. Who will take initiative or how this regrouping can take place is too premature but the possibility cannot be ruled out.

Elections to eight state assemblies are due in the year 2013. They are Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Meghalaya and Rajasthan. The fortunes of major political parties are at stake. At least four of them – Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand are ruled by the BJP while the Congress rules some of the other states like Rajasthan and Delhi. Whether the BJP will be able to hold on to Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is to be seen but odds are in favor of them. With the Congress not having a strong local leader to face them the BJP may bag Rajasthan, where the former chief minister Vasundhara Raje is poised to grab power. Congress is hoping to come back to power for the fourth time under the magic spell of Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit. Elsewhere, Andhra Pradesh, where the Congress has major stake has been mismanaged so badly that it will be difficult to get even a double-digit number. The Centre is in a dilemma whether to announce a separate Telengana or not. Either way Andhra will choose a blood path.

The party leadership is getting ready for the elections in states as well as the Lok Sabha polls. As a first step Rahul Gandhi has already been made the coordinator for the elections. He has setup a war room and has begun poll preparations. The year 2013 will also decide about the effective leadership of Rahul Gandhi who has so far shied away form taking centre stage. He comes with a clean slate. His success depends on his poll strategy and his new team and getting connected to the electorate. Before the next months’ brain storming session at Jaipur from! 8 to 20, the Congress President might announce a major reorganization of the party and this new team would participate in the Chintan Shivir to chalk out the party’s political and economic strategy for the polls. The Chintan Shivir session comes a decade after the last one held in Shimla in 2003, after which the Congress led the UPA to power. Sonia Gandhi also has to fill up the posts in several states, which are currently headless.

The BJP too has to decide about its prime ministerial candidate as well as the party president. Will the present party chief Nitin Gadkari gets a second term? What will happen to Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi? Will he get recognition for winning Gujarat for the third time? Will Advani fade away? The BJP has to find answers for all these. It also depends on the RSS. The year 2013 is crucial for the future of both Modi and Gadkari. It is also not known whether a dark horse will emerge in the form of Sushma Swaraj or Arun Jaitley.

On the economic front the budget is likely to be a populist one. The Prime Minister is keen to push the second-generation reforms including insurance and banking reforms after the success of FDI in multi brand retail. This might help attract foreign investment. The economists predict for 2013 low growth, low returns, and lower risk. The investors may face a quiet year as compared to the previous year, which saw plenty of drama in the Euro Zone. But the World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu has predicted the next year may remain will be another harsh year in terms of economic growth as the European situation will remain difficult till the 2014. There is likely to be a bumper crop of wheat in 2013, it’s sixth in a row to exceed demand-strengthening prospects for exports from the world’s second-biggest producer for a second year.

On the foreign policy front it is likely to be a quiet. The concentration may be mostly with the neighbors. Engaging with China will continue to be a major challenge but the transition taking place in Beijing it may be slow. With elections in Pakistan and Bangladesh not much can happen with these two neighbors. There may not be any major visits during the next year.

On the whole the year 2013 will be the year before the Lok Sabha elections unless something happens that changes the date to 2013. (IPA Service)