With the first round of the poll battle ending on September 25 when nominations closed, the contesting parties are now expected to put their election campaigns in top gear. The ruling Congress and the opposition parties have almost equally fared in the first round. To begin with, the opposition scored over the Congress by announcing their first lists of candidates much before the Congress did. Tied in knots of multi-level discussions and pulls and pressures from rival groups, the ruling party managed to announce its first list only three days before the last date of nominations.

But in the final round which was marked by a battle of nerves between the Congress and the opposition, the former scored over the later. The mainstream opposition parties, Indian National Lok Dal, Haryana Janhit Congress, BJP and BSP failed to find 'suitable' candidates for the left-out constituencies. They waited for the Congress to announce its nominees so that they could poach upon Congressmen denied party ticket. The ruling party's internal pulls and pressures led to its announcing the final lists only 48 and 24 hours before the nominations closed. This delay forced the opposition parties to announce their own nominees for most of the remaining seats leaving limited space for poaching upon the larger number of Congress rebels.

During the run-up to the elections, the opposition suffered a major setback. Some of the prominent and influential leaders of almost all the opposition parties including INLD, HJC, BJP and BSP quit their parties to seek greener pastures in the Congress. Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was instrumental in winning them over, was able to secure Congress nominations for almost all of them. This is bound to adversely impact the opposition's prospects in some of the constituencies.

It is in the arena of factional politics that the Congress fares badly compared to the opposition parties. Leaving aside the BSP which recently saw clashes between its rival factions at a public meeting addressed by the UP Chief Minister Mayawati, the other three parties INLD, HJC and BJP are, by and large, free from factional fights after the exit of the disgruntled. But in the case of the Congress, if the tussles over ticket allotment are any indication, the prospects of some of its candidates will be adversely affected. Though group rivalries did not affect the party's overall prospects in the Lok Sabha poll, these did reduce the victory margins in some of the Assembly segments. Hooda has been able to corner the dissidents by securing nominations for almost all his nominees. Even his bête noire Forest Minister Kiran Choudhry, the estranged daughter-in-law of late Bansi Lal, who, because of her reported clout in New Delhi, in the past, had been able to score over the Chief Minister on certain issues had to eat the humble pie. She failed to block the nominations, among others, of Hooda's candidates Ranbir Mohindra and Somvir Singh, son and son-in-law respectively of Bansi Lal, from the Assembly segments of her daughter's Bhiwani-Mohindergarh Lok Sabha constituency.

No doubt, major issues like Hooda government's performance, effectiveness of the opposition's anti-Congress campaign and the caste and sub-caste factors Haryana is notorious for will play a major role in deciding the outcome of the elections. But the controversies over the selections of candidates and the image of the individual candidates will also play a role in deciding the poll outcome. Unless a miracle happens, the hitherto widely-acknowledged perception of the ruling party having an upper hand in the polls remains unchanged. It is in this light that the possible post-poll political alignments and the state's likely political scenario need to be discussed.

It is difficult to conclude to what extent the INLD has been able to recover from the debilitating effects of the deep erosion in its Jat base and its supremo Om Parkash Chautala's image of an arrogant and vindictive leader, the factors which played a key role in the party's humiliating defeats in all the elections since 2004. But despite all these shortcomings, it looks probable that the INLD may bag bulk of the anti-Congress vote and emerge as the single largest opposition party after the polls.

At one stage, it appeared that Bhajan Lal's fledgling HJC which banks upon its non-Jat support base might be able to emerge as the key opposition party. But the last few weeks developments like its leadership's changing stance on alliances and Bhajan Lal's elder son Chander Mohan's marriage controversy have damaged its image. This will negatively affect the party's electoral fortunes. It is doubtful if the BJP whose urban base stands deeply eroded will be able to significantly mark its presence in Haryana's new Assembly. It is the electoral future of the BSP which scored unexpected gains in the Lok Sabha elections which will be keenly watched.

Adversity turns foes into friends. Notwithstanding these perceived projections about the electoral prospects of the contesting parties, one cannot rule out the possibility of the opposition parties coming on a common platform in the Assembly to oppose the Congress government if it returns to power. And that would chart the state's future political scenario (IPA Service)