Leader of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Shibu Soren is trying hard to form the government. He himself would like to become the Chief Minister of the state, but the political situation of the state is not very conducive to him. His party has only 18 MLAs in the house of 82. With the support of 13 MLAs of Congress, that number rises to 31. There are other 6 Independents and small party’s MLAs, who can raise the number to 37. One of the 6 MLAs belongs to CPI(ML). Even his support to the new government is not guaranteed. Even if he gives support to Shibu Soren, 5 MLAs are still required to reach the magic number of 42, which is needed to sustain any government.

And here comes the significance of Lalu Yadav. His RJD has 5 MLAs in Jharkhand. If he allows the Jharkhand Unit of his party to join the government, the crisis is over, but will he allow it to do so? Amidst the present crisis, Lalu has asked for the suspension of the house and give parties more time to finalize their alliance.

With his 5 MLAs Lalu is in a position to influence the government formation and he would like to use this opportunity to join the ruling combine of the UPA at the Centre. It should be recalled that it was Shibu Soren, who had formed the government in Jharkhand after the Assembly Elections three years ago. His government had the support and participation of BJP. At that time Mr Soren was also a Member of Parliament and as an MP he had voted in favor of UPA government at a crucial time in the Parliament. His support to the UPA government had infuriated the BJP and it had walked out of the government causing its fall. Shibu Soren had then tried to enlist the support of Congress to form the next government. Congress did not oblige him, because of the Bihar factor.

Jharkhand has been formed by dividing Bihar. Congress had to face Assembly Elections in Bihar and it was not in a mood to face Bihar elections by having alliance in Jharkhand with a tainted leader like Shibu Soren. Even with the support of Congress, the number was not sufficient. Lalu’s support was must to form the government, but the support of RJD supremo was not unconditional. He wanted his inclusion in the UPA government at the Centre. Lalu would have also liked to enter into an alliance with Congress on its own terms in Bihar Assembly Elections. After better performance in UP in 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the mood of Congress was upbeat in Bihar. Even in Bihar, the votes polled by Congress candidates were doubled in 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, the party had decided to go alone in Bihar. Had Congress formed or helped JMM to form the government in Jharkhand in 2010, it would have to accommodate Lalu Yadav in Central government and would have to form alliance with Lalu in Bihar Assembly Elections. That is why, Congress was not enthusiastic to help form JMM government there. Even Mr Soren wanted Congress to have its own man as CM, but it too was not acceptable to Congress, because that government would have to be supported by Lalu’s RJD as well. Congress wanted to have no relations with Lalu, while facing the Bihar Assembly Elections. This was the strategy of Congress in 2010, when Soren government had fallen after the withdrawal of BJP support.

Now political scenario has changed, but what has not changed is the significance of 5 MLAs of RJD in Jharkhand. If Congress wants to install JMM government, it has to ensure the support of 5 Lalu’s MLAs and for that it has to pay price. The price is a Ministerial birth to Lalu in UPA government at the centre. The price is not limited to it. Lalu would also like to have poll adjustment for the next Lok Sabha elections to be held in 2014. RJD has some base in Jharkhand too, so his talk for the Lok Sabha elections will not only be limited to Bihar, but also he would like to field its some candidates in Jharkhand as alliance candidates.

That is the reason, why Lalu Yadav has demanded for the suspension of the Assembly. His politics is the major stumbling block in the formation of a government keeping BJP out. So far as Congress is concerned, even President Rule keeping Assembly in suspended animation will suit it, but it is somewhat risky. The reason is JMM and BJP may patch up again. Congress would like to see a government led by either its own man or a JMM leader and having a poll adjustment agreement with more seats in its kitty. But it has to accommodate Lalu’s RJD as well. The euphoria of Congress for going it alone in 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar and Jharkhand are over, so it may now think to accommodate Lalu as well.

In normal circumstances, it would not have been difficult for Congress to accommodate Lalu, but JD(U) leaders of Bihar are also sending signal that they can associate with Congress before the next Lok Sabha elections, if BJP projects Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate. That is why Congress wants to keep both the options of Lalu and Nitish in Bihar open. In this fluid political scene an alternate government formation in Jharkhand is being marred with uncertainty. (IPA Service)