Taking a leaf from the BJP’s one time partner and the BSP chief Mayawati in U.P, Arjun Munda has recommended dissolution of the Assembly and imposing fresh elections, arguing that no other party is in a position to form a government. This was the exact argument given by Mayawati when she broke away from the BJP in 2003, but the then UP governor did not accept her recommendation and Mulayam Singh formed the government with the help of other parties.

There is no surprise that the Congress is adopting a wait and watch game. The JMM is now partner in the UPA-II, while JMM supported the BJP in the state. If you look back, it was Shibu Soren’s vote, which saved the UPA in the Indo-US nuclear deal. It was the JMM, which voted with the UPA on the FDI. The JMM also voted for Pranab Mukherjee in the last year’s presidential elections. All these go to show that the two parties were getting closer day by day and the JMM was distancing itself from the BJP gradually. JMM was waiting for an opportunity to severe connections with the BJP and Shibu Soren has used the ruse that Munda has failed to hand over power to him.

Now that Munda has resigned, what next? The first option for the governor is to explore the possibilities of the formation of another government led by the Congress or the JMM, as these are the only two parties, which have double-digit numbers in an 82-member assembly. The JMM has 18 members and the Congress 13 while the RJD has five. JMM is keen to form the government with the help of the Congress. But this depends on the Congress whether the Grand Old Party is in a mood to support JMM or wants to form the government itself or would prefer President’s rule. Some power hungry local Congressmen are arguing that this is the time to add one more state to the Congress kitty as it would enthuse the workers elsewhere. The Congress party does not have a single government in the eastern belt beginning from West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Some in the Congress argue that getting the Jharkhand government would boost the party’s morale. However, the central leadership is not very keen to do so. It would rather wait and explore the possibilities after a spell of President’s rule.

Secondly, President’s rule is more acceptable to all the parties other than Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (P). Its chief Marandi hopes to benefit by early elections. The Congress is not ready and the BJP too is not internally ready to face the polls. The JMM certainly does not want polls and so does the RJD. Therefore, the Congress, the JMM and the RJD would now prefer President’s rule rather than facing elections if they cannot form the government.

Thirdly, the Governor, in all probability would take a decision on the suggestions from the centre, as did his predecessors. President’s rule would benefit the Congress as it amounts to central rule. The Congress could explore the possibility of forming its own government after a few months.

As for the BJP, it is a set back when the party is already facing other problems like the leadership crisis at the centre. The BJP has to get ready for the Assembly elections in nine states this year of which it is ruling in at least three states. Yediyurappa has floated a new party in Karnataka upsetting the BJP. The Arjun Munda government was already facing criticism from is own leaders like Yashwant Sinha. The tiny state had become the fiefdom of some senior BJP leaders with the result the vested interests are ruling the state.

Look at Jharkhand’s history, which was born with great expectations in 2000. Jharkhand has been a neglected state since its creation. It had eight governments, one of them lasting for just 11 days. It was a shining example of horse-trading in the political system. There was a historic experiment of an independent MLA Mahdu Khoda leading the government and languishing in jail today. The JMM chief Shibu Soren had to quit his post as chief minister because he was unable to win the Assembly elections.

The results are shocking that the Maoists have taken control of a part of the state running a parallel government in their turfs. Secondly it is also a fact that the bureaucrats and the politicians in the state have shown no sincerity and honesty to implement welfare programmes. It is a sad commentary that in all these 12 years the state Assembly had hardly met for about 365 days to discuss the problems of the state.

With such political and economic crisis is there hope for the tiny state? Although it is true that most of the smaller states face political instability as “Aya rams and Gaya rams” dominate their politics. But there is also hope that states like Himachal Pradesh Chhattisgarh and Tripura have had some stability despite the odds. Jharkhand should vote for stability and performance and only then there could be some hope. (IPA Service)