Andhra Pradesh is a classic example of how ambition and political miscalculations could make a stable state unstable. Four months ago, when the Congress Party led by Dr. Rajashekhara Reddy won a spectacular electoral victory in the state, everyone went ga ga about it. The party came back with a comfortable majority while the opposition parties were sidelined. Reddy managed to win a whopping 33 Lok Sabha seats. But for the tragic helicopter crash which killed Reddy last month, things could have been rosy for the party in Andhra. Reddy was ruling with an iron hand and did not allow dissidence to disturb him in his five-year rule, entirely because of the blessings of the Congress high command in Delhi . Sonia Gandhi had full faith in him as “Reddy could do no wrong” in the eyes of 10 Janpath. As long as Reddy was alive, there were no other aspirants to the throne. Now that there is a vacuum, many ambitious candidates, including Jagan Mohan Reddy, the only son of Rajashekhara Reddy, have moved to the centrestage staking claim.

No doubt, the party as well as the leadership was shocked over the tragic circumstances in which Reddy died. The immediate sympathy for Reddy was visible in the state. Seventy of the MLAs handpicked by Reddy promptly supported the candidature of Jagan while the leadership was in two minds. The whole thing would not have blown up so much had the leadership chosen a successor immediately. It was the signal from Law Minister Veerappa Moily that Rosaiah was only an interim chief minister that enthused other aspirants. This was the first mistake. If the Congress wanted to choose someone else, it should have done so immediately. Or else this “interim” word should not have been used.

The fact that the Congress high command is still dithering to take a decision has landed the state in a mess. A stable state has become unstable because the chief minister's writ does not run owing to the uncertainty over his continuance. Rosaiah, who was installed last month as the “interim chief minister”, is yet to occupy the chief minister's chambers in the Andhra Pradesh Secretariat as he obviously did not want to do so for just a few days. While the local Congressmen thought that a decision would be announced soon, the leadership wants to make sure that passions cool, which was indeed a good strategy initially.

However, things are not going according to their plan as the ambitious Jagan Mohan Reddy is not willing to wait any longer. Backed by the Rajya Sabha M.P Ramachandra Rao, Jagan has become a “young man in a hurry.” Rosaiah is having trouble in dealing with his own colleagues as some of them are hardcore supporters of Jagan and do not want to accept Rosaiah's leadership. They don't even attend the cabinet meetings. Some MLAs are even talking of resigning to press the leadership to install Jagan. Moreover, Jagan's supporters indulged in vandalism and went to the extent of burning the effigy of Congress President Sonia Gandhi. The sporadic violence which started in Khammam is spreading slowly to other parts of the state. Chief Minister Rosaiah is unable to function because of his status as “interim chief minister”. The party of course took a quick decision to suspend some supporters of Jagan, but it is quite obvious that unless a decision is made quickly, Andhra will go out of control. Can the Congress afford to lose control of such a big state?

The Congress leadership has to make up its mind quickly because Jagan's supporters are getting restive. There was a proposal to work out a rehabilitation package for him and hints that he may be given a ministership or a party position to keep him away from the state politics but Jagan is not keen on accepting this. He has set his heart on becoming the chief minister although he is a political novice and just a 130-day- old M.P.

With the Jagan supporters giving ultimatum that the Congress Legislature party should be convened within two days, the indiscipline in the state is growing and so is factionalism. There are not too many options. If the high command decides to let Rosaiah continue, then it should act quickly and end the uncertainty so that the chief Minister can function. A decision should be announced soon. The fact that even Sonia Gandhi's posters were not spared speaks volumes of the extent of indiscipline in the party. Jagan is using the age-old trick of letting loose his supporters while publicly appealing to them to remain calm.

The Congress should make sure that indiscipline and factionalism won't be tolerated. It should also send a signal that the power struggle should end quickly and this can happen only when the high command decides about who will be the chief minister. If not Rosaiah, there are at least half a dozen names including that of S. Jaipal Reddy, Purandhareswari and Pallam Raju. What is the lesson the party has learnt from the Andhra Pradesh experience? Don't' put all your eggs in one basket or else you will rue the day. Jagan is an example of this lesson. (IPA)