However, that he is not the first choice of the BJP-led NDA can be seen from the Shiv Sena’s expressed preference for Sushma Swaraj for the post. Her name was first mentioned by Bal Thackeray. How, the late supremo’s son, Uddhav, has proposed her name.

Although Nitish Kumar has never put forward his own name, his opposition to Modi is no secret. The assumption, therefore, is that if the Gujarat chief minister is ruled out of the race because of resistance from two of the NDA’s constituents – the Shiv Sena and the Janata Dal (United) – then the next best option is the Bihar chief minister because his appeal extends also to the Muslims, which cannot be said for Modi or Sushma.

Besides Rahul, Modi and Sushma, the name of the former U.P. chief minister, Mulayam Singh Yadav, has also come up occasionally, the most recent being the suggestion made by several Samajwadi Party leaders. Mulayam Singh’s name had been aired even earlier, especially when he made way for his son, Akhilesh Yadav, to become the chief minister.

The belief then was that it wasn’t paternal love or his own uncertain health that made Mulayam Singh desist from becoming the chief minister, but a desire for a higher prize. In aspiring for it, he may have had in mind the efforts made in 2008 by his arch-rival in the state, Mayawati, who had convinced herself and a number of others in the Third Front that she could step into Manmohan Singh’s shoes once the UPA government was defeated in the Lok Sabha on the issue of the nuclear deal.

In the event, the government did not lose the no-confidence motion sponsored by the BJP and the Left. Instead, it was the ramshackle Third Front that disintegrated when the UPA improved upon its 2004 performance in 2009 with the Congress alone winning more than 200 Lok Sabha seats.

However, memories of that period do not seem to have left Mulayam Singh. He apparently believes that the Left and the BJP have a better chance this time to be in the driver’s seat with the Congress probably faring worse than in 2004. In that case, a non-Congress, non-BJP Third Front comprising, say, the Left, the Samajwadi Party, the Telugu Desam, the AIADMK, the Biju Janata Dal, the Trinamool Congress and others can make a bid for forming a government.

And, who can be the leader but Mulayam Singh since, in his assessment, the country may not be ready for a south Indian PM? If this unlikely scenario does fructify, India will have its first PM from the Hindi belt who is known for his aversion to English and computers. However, the chances of such a turn of events are minimal for two reasons.

One is that the Third Front is unlikely to be a cohesive outfit if it at all comes into being. For a start, the Left and the Trinamool can hardly be expected to be partners in an alliance, and the other reason is there may be other contenders such as Jayalalitha and Naveen Patnaik. Besides, if the UPA can wean away the Janata Dal (United) from the NDA, then it may still be able to pip the BJP-led alliance at the post.

The NDA itself may try to win the Trinamool and the BJD to its side. But, both these former allies of the BJP may be wary of a second innings with it for fear of losing the Muslim vote. Given the trouble which Mamata Banerjee has taken to keep Salman Rushdie out of Kolkata, it is clear that she wants to keep the minorities on her side at a time when she is palpably losing her earlier appeal, especially in the urban areas.

However, what the floating of the name of a regional chieftain like Mulayam Singh, whose party has a base only in one province shows, is how the decline of a pan-Indian party like the Congress can lead to a situation with a high potential for instability. Where the Congress can claim that its appeal spreads across caste, religious, linguistic and ethnic barriers, the Samajwadi Party’s base is made up mainly of the OBCs, and especially the Yadavs, of the so-called cow belt. The ascent of such an organization to the position of the first party at the centre can have portentous consequences.

The BJP’s appeal, too, is limited primarily to the Hindus, but the fact that it is in power in seven states shows that it has been trying to widen its influence. But, the Samajwadi Party remains a one-province, one-caste party with a bucolic orientation. (IPA Service)