The best performance of BJP in UP was before its demolition, when it got absolute majority in the 1991 UP Assembly Elections. It is true that in Lok Sabha Elections, BJP continued to perform better till 1999, but it was because of the personality of Atal Behari Vajpayee, who was used to be projected as the Prime Minister candidate of the Party, before the elections. Even Atal Behari Vajpayee failed to enthuse the voters in 2004 Lok Sabha election. In Assembly Elections, the slide of BJP continued, despite its attempt to arouse the communal sentiments by some means or the other. VHP tried many times to launch agitation over the issue, but it failed to mobilize the people.

Now BJP is again back with the same agenda, which it had abandoned ostensibly for NDA alliance, but it always tried use it before elections at least in UP. After 1991, BJP never got majority in UP Assembly elections, although, it used to emerge as the single largest party of the State. In 2002 Assembly Elections, it lost heavily and was placed at the third position after SP and BSP. At that time, BJP was led by Rajnath Singh, who was the Chief Minister of the State before and during the election and NDA government was at the centre. Strangely, in 2002 there was Godhra carnage in Sabarmati Express, which was carrying the Ram Temple supporters who were returning from Ayodhya. The burning of train carrying the Ram Bhaktas vowing for the construction of a decent Temple at the site of demolished Babri Mosque did not help BJP in Uttar Pradesh.

Temple movement did not work in UP, what was working for it was the leadership of Atal Behari Vajpayee during the Lok Sabha elections till 1999. It should be mentioned that the Lok Sabha elections in the period had taken place in 1996, 1998 and 1999 and BJP fared well in all these elections getting over 55 to 60 seats in Uttar Pradesh. And in the Assembly elections, it never got majority during the same period. It was forced to make Mayawati the Chief Minister of the state three times to join the government and each time; it had bitter experience with the BSP leader. Sometimes, Mayawati ditched it and sometimes it ditched Mayawati. In this game, BJP continued losing its ground and in 2009 Lok Sabha, it was pushed at the fourth place.

It would have been better for BJP to depend on the charisma of a leader rather than moving back towards its old agenda of Hindutva, which no longer energize its cadres. Obviously, one is wondering over its strategy shift. One explanation can be the desire of RSS to control the BJP with the help of Hindutva agenda. The experience of RSS with BJP, when it was in power was not very good. Atal Behari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani as Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister were persons of independent thinking and they did not use to oblige the RSS leaders many times. This is the reason; RSS does not want to see strong persons at the power seat, if BJP is in government at Delhi. Lal Krishna Advani might have crossed 85 years of his life, but he is quite fit physically, mentally and psychologically to lead the party and the government. But RSS does not like him, because he cannot be dictated by it, while leading a government. Same thing is true with Narendra Modi. As Chief Minister of Gujarat, he has reportedly annoyed many RSS leaders by not accepting their dictates. That is why RSS does not like Modi to lead the Union government, in case BJP is in power.

This is the reason, why RSS was hell bent for renominating Nitin Gadkari as the BJP President, though it would have meant a suicide for the party, because at this juncture, a tainted President could have only benefitted the Congress, which is facing serious problems on the issue of corruption. Anyway, RSS could not be able to force BJP to elect Gadkari for the second time as its chief. It could not contain Yashwant Sinha and Lal Krishna Advani. The former was to contest against Gadkari and the later was to support him. Anyway, RSS was able to make its second choice Rajnath Singh as the party President, but his style of working is different from Nitin Gadkari and he is not known to take decision in arbitrary manner without consulting all leaders who matter.

Meanwhile, some BJP leaders are vigorously campaigning for declaring Narendra Modi as the next Prime Ministerial candidate even at the cost of losing JD (U) as a partner. They are insisting that the loss of JD(U) will be a gain of BJP, because Modi factor will compensate the loss of Nitish factor and the party will sweep Bihar even without JD(U). Leaders from Bihar have emerged as the most vocal exponent of Modi as PM candidate. In the coming weeks, campaign for Modi as PM candidate is likely to rise in BJP, because those who have to fight elections know, the importance of energizing the workers during the election and Modi has emerged as a leader who is the most suitable for this purpose. All surveys conducted during last one year have shown without exception that Narendra Modi is the most popular political leader of the country. He is not only the most popular among BJP and RSS family, but also outside it.

It seems RSS leaders have discovered Hindutva as the possible energizing factor during the next elections. They might like to keep the question of PM candidate open before the elections and after the result it would be easy for them to choose the candidate of their choice to lead the government, in case BJP is in power. That is the reason, they are trying to communalize the political atmosphere before the elections. (IPA Service)