Although Raj came for his uncle’s funeral, a patch up between the cousins was not evident. Look at the personalities of both the cousins. While Uddhav has been working under the shadow of his father all along, a flamboyant Raj has been able to establish his identity and his party has won 11 seats in the Assembly polls last time. Though Raj may walk and talk like his uncle and imitate him in his mannerisms, he may not be able to step into his shoes or fill the vacuum.

Uddhav Thackeray was the first to make a move for a patch up last week. His olive branch to Raj in an interview in party mouthpiece Saamna has created a buzz in political circles. There is wide speculation that the cousins were coming together to defeat the ruling Congress-NCP combine in the state. The Sena old guards led by former Speaker Manohar Joshi have advised Uddhav to make up with Raj in the interests of the Sena. They hope that Bal Thackeray's passing away might open the doors for a compromise formula where Raj could become the face of the party and Uddhav as the strategist working in the background as he has done mostly. The cousins would have to work out a division of power. Both Uddhav and Raj would have to decide and accept the areas they control if they come together. If Raj and Uddhav were driven further apart by their egos and personal ambitions, the Sena would be the biggest loser they feel. There are also apprehensions that the hardliners in the Sena may defect to the MNS as Raj is seen as a worthy successor to Balashaeb. They fear any split in Marathi manoos votes would strengthen hands of the rivals, Congress and NCP.

Raj has not responded to his cousin’s invitation so far on this unity move. The biggest question is would Raj accept Uddhav as his leader now that Raj has established himself with a mass following. In fact the reason for his leaving the Sena was in protest against the promotion of Uddhav by his late uncle Balasaheb Thackeray. After the death of Balasaheb, Uddhav has been made as Adyaksha of the party not Pramukh, the position held by Balasaheb. So where is the place for Raj in the Sena? Raj has 12 MLAs with him; his party has a strong presence in Nashik and Pune municipal corporations and a few districts.

Raj’s supporters suspect that the Sena camp is panicking over reports of unrest among its cadres in various districts. Sensing the chaos Uddhav might have made the unity bid to check the flight of his supporters to MNS so that they will put their migration plans on hold.

There is yet another worry for Uddhav. The Shiv Sena is also aware that Raj has been seriously working on expanding his party base. For the first time, Raj will undertake a whirlwind tour covering almost all districts to expand his base. Uddhav is also worried at the way the Gujarat chief minister Narednra Modi invited Raj for his swearing in ceremony last month.

Uddhav also fears now that Balasaheb is no more, the party’s vote bank will be up for grabs, and its already-loosening grip over Mumbai may loosen further. Traditional Sena voters may shift to not only the MNS but also the NCP, which is trying to establish it supremacy over its ally the Congress Party. If Sharad Pawar had poached the Sena by luring heavy weights like Chagan Bhujwal, Ganesh Naik and Bhaskar Jhadav earlier, now his nephew Ajit Pawar is poaching on the weakened Sena with more vigour.

The BJP too would like to broker peace between the two cousins. A weakened BJP in the state after the demise of Promod Mahajan and the wholesale shifting of the state leaders to the national politics would like a united Sena rather than MNS splitting the Sena – BJP votes in the state. The plan is to have an alliance of the Sena, MNS, BJP and the RPI (Athawale). This alliance, the BJP hopes will be formidable.

With elections 15 months away, Raj is seen as a key player. His next move has the potential to alter the course of Maharashtra politics. The coming together of the cousins would make Sena stronger and consolidate 'Marathi manoos' vote bank, giving the Sena – BJP combine a handsome chance of storming into power riding a sympathy wave. Sharad Pawar disputes this saying even Balasaheb was alive Sena had become weak. On the other hand if the MNS fights on its own like it did earlier, the polity would be splintered with multi-cornered contests in several constituencies. The Congress and the NCP are planning to have only a post poll alliance as they had done earlier. For the first time the Sena will fight polls without Balasaheb. The 2014 Lok Sabha elections and October Maharashtra Assembly elections will be an acid test for the estranged cousins. So Raj has the key to the future of Sena and the BJP. (IPA Service)