In an optimistic note and citing the downturn is more or less over”, it projected that the economy would grow in the range of 6.1% to 6.7% in 2013-14.
In the current year 2012-13 the GDP growth would be at 5%. Headline WPI inflation may decline in the range of 6.2% to 6.6% in March 2013. However, the elevated food inflation would continue to remain an area of concern as it inched towards double digit in December 2012.
“The situation warranted urgent steps to reduce government spending so as to contain inflation. Also required were steps to facilitate corporate and infrastructure investment so as to ease supply.
“Several measures announced in recent months are aimed at restoring the fiscal health of the government and shrinking the CAD as also improving the growth rate. With the global economy also likely to recover somewhat in 2013, these measures should help in improving the Indian economy’s outlook for 2013-14,” it said.
On being asked about the Survey not projecting a specific growth figure for 2013-14, the Government’s Chief Economic Advisor Raghuram G Rajan said as there is still a “wide uncertainty” in global recovery process, it is difficult to pin point any such figure.
Outlining some Budgetary expectations, the Survey suggested widening tax base, prioritising government expenditure to reduce fiscal deficit, incentivising food production, creation of more jobs, curbing import of gold to contain current account deficit
However, the Survey’s suggestion for introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Direct Tax Code (DTC) may not materialise in the current year as sufficient ground has not yet been prepared.
On the issue of containing subsidy, the Survey said : “Controlling the expenditure on subsidies will be crucial. The domestic prices of petroleum products, particularly diesel and LPG need to be raised in line with their prices prevailing in the international market.”
The Survey noted that a beginning has already been made with the decision in September last to raise the price of diesel and again in January to allow oil marketing companies to increase prices in small increments at regular intervals. The number of subsidised gas cylinders has also been capped at 9 per household.
It emphasised that efforts will have to be made to contain subsidies through better targeting and for reducing leakages involved in their delivery. One such initiative is direct benefit transfer (DBT) scheme.
The Survey said while India’s recent slowdown is partially rooted in external causes, domestic causes are also important.
On the controversial issue of land acquisition, the Survey suggested a balance between the need for economic growth and the costs imposed on the displaced with proper mapping of land, easier means to facilitate leasing and transparent compensation policy.
On foreign direct investment, the Survey noted that India, with a rank of four in the global restrictiveness index, fares better than China, ranked first. Yet, there is scope to reverse the moderation seen last year in inflows of overseas capital.
Accordingly, it called for a review in increasing the foreign investment cap in a host of areas, notably public sector banks, insurance and defence production as they promise new technology and practices and such capital are better than portfolio investment.
Another consequence of slowdown has been lower than targeted tax and non-tax revenues. With the subsidies bill, particularly that of petroleum products, increasing, and the danger that fiscal targets would be breached substantially became very real in the current year, the Survey said.
In the Survey, a special chapter has been added focusing on jobs that says the future holds promise for India if it seizes the demographic dividend, with nearly half of the additions to the labour force till 2030 expected in the 30-49 age group.
'Because good jobs are both the pathway to growth as well as the best form of inclusion, India has to think of ways of enabling their creation,' says the survey, adding new jobs are currently being added mainly in informal and low productivity sectors.
Survey calls for subsidy cut, pegs growth in range 6.1% to 6.7%
ASHOK B SHARMA - 2013-02-27 13:19
New Delhi: The pre-Budget Economic Survey tabled by the Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram in Parliament on Wednesday has argued for a hike in prices of diesel and LPG cooking gas with a view to lessen the subsidy burden.