First it was the non-Congress parties including Indian National Lok Dal, BJP, Haryana Janhit Congress (Bhajan Lal) and BSP which formed individual alliances with one or the other parties only to part ways later owing to conflicting claims on seat sharing and projection of Chief Ministerial candidate.

What forced them to form such alliances was their bitter experience of miserably losing Lok Sabha and Assembly elections they had fought separately since 2004 enabling the Congress to win nine of the ten Lok Sabha seats in 2004 and in 2009. The divided opposition also suffered humiliating defeat in the 2005 Assembly elections when even former Chief Minister Om Parkash Chautala-led INLD managed to get only nine out of the 90 seats and the BJP two.

Political compulsions of the now-friends-now-foes INLD and BJP prompted them to join hands on the eve of 2009 Lok Sabha elections. But both drew a blank with HJC's Bhajan Lal winning the one seat Congress failed to bag.

Taking advantage of the division in the opposition, the Congress, which was otherwise also confident of winning the elections, encouraged defections by luring some prominent leaders of INLD, BJP, HJC and BSP which joined the ruling party on the eve of the Assembly elections. Leave aside the era of Aya Ram Gaya Ram of the late sixties and Bhajan Lal-led ruling Janata party's en masse floor crossing to the Congress in early eighties, this was perhaps the first incident of the Congress promoting defections of a large number of opposition leaders to the ruling party. The party leadership can claim that in this coalition era, winning over of opposition leaders is pragmatic politics, but it forgets that its actions promote unethical politics, which can also cost it dearly. It has had its taste in the large number of rebels who are now threatening the prospects of some of the Congress candidates particularly those refused party ticket to accommodate the defectors.

An ironic aspect of Haryana elections is the alliance between the INLD and Akali Dal which have been reiterating their clashing stands on inter-state disputes between their respective states of Haryana and Punjab. They claim that they have joined hands to defeat the Congress. But the factor which binds the two parties is the bonds between the Badal and Devi Lal families which were first based on political interests and were later cemented by their economic interests. Through its 1950s-1960s Punjabi suba movement, the Akali Dal wanted to have a Sikh majority state in which they hoped to come to power. This roused hopes of several Haryana leaders who demanded formation of a Hindi-speaking state comprising residual Hindi-speaking areas of the composite Punjab after the formation of a Punjabi-speaking state. Devi Lal was among Haryana's prominent leaders.

Their demands for linguistic Punjab and Haryana established close bonds between the Badals and Devi Lals whose political interests coincided. After the Badals and Devi Lals got the opportunity of coming to power in their respective states, the political bonds between the two families were further cemented by their economic interests. Among one of the major benefits thus accruing to the Badal family was the allotment to it of the precious land near the Indira Gandhi International Airport in Gurgaon district at throwaway price by the Devi Lal government for establishing a resort. Later when Haryana Industrial Development Corporation threatened to resume the land on account of the allottee's alleged defaults, Om Parkash Chautala helped the Badals to retain its ownership.

Although all the political parties are practising competitive populism by promising generous sops and freebies in their election manifestos, the cake goes to the BJP. It has declared its resolve “to ban Western music and obscenity on display in the name of culture by enacting a law”. One does not know whether Haryana BJP is adding its own brand of Hindutva to the list of the brands of other Sangh Parivar members including BJP, RSS, Shiv Sena and Narender Modi.

To what extent the above developments will influence the outcome of the elections will only be known after voting. The people's response to political parties campaigns can, however, lead to varying interpretations.

The main factors on which the opposition parties hope to win the elections are the price rise and power shortage. But their failure to forge unity and the consequent division in the anti-Congress vote will upset their calculations. That they lack self-confidence is indicated by the INLD and HJC leaders claiming they will win their majorities in the elections and form their own governments but also simultaneously announcing their readiness to form post-poll alliance in order to keep the Congress out of power.

Besides a division in non-Congress votes, the Congress banks upon the development its government has undertaken during its rule and Bhupinder Singh Hooda's image of an amiable and soft-spoken politician. However, the lukewarm response to the meetings addressed by Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh a week ago and the presence of influential rebel candidates in some constituencies could harm the ruling party's prospects.

A major factor that may help the Congress to return to power will be its ability to provide political stability in Haryana, the factor that largely contributed to the Congress-led UPA's return to power in New Delhi. (IPA)