By not contesting the recent Tripura assembly elections and concentrating on West Bengal, she firmly rejected the advice of experts who stoked her national ambitions during the Presidential elections, floating their “Federal Front” pipe dream. Accordingly, as part of renewing its focus on West Bengal, the TMC conducted a gruelling pre-election campaign for the by elections held at Rezinagar (district Murshidabad, Englishbazar (Malda) and Nalhati (Birbhum).

All districts have sizeable Muslim populations, the community being a majority in Murshidabad. The TMC leaders saw this as an additional advantage, given Banerjee’s consistent efforts to woo the community. In 2011 Assembly elections, the Congress won all three seats, as part of an alliance with the TMC.

Two years later, conditions were very different. In fact, neither the TMC nor the Congress was certain of success now that they were contestants, not partners. The Left, which still commanded a support base of over 41 per cent of the votes in 2011, remained a formidable force on paper. Again, the BJP’s impressive showing at the recent Jangipur (also in Murshidabad) Lok Sabha seat which Abhijit Mukherjee, son of Pranab Mukherjee, won narrowly, could not be ignored.

In many ways, the by-elections became a prestige issue. In Murshidabad, Congress minister and hard-hitting critic of Mamata Banerjee, Adhir Choudhury, considered the battle for Rezinagar as a personal fight against the TMC. Similarly, relatives of the old, powerful and popular A.B.A. Ghani Khan Choudhury clan, now in Congress, had personal pride in ensuring a win at the Englishbazar seat. In comparison, Nalhati was the only seat where there seemed to be no high stakes involved.

The pre poll campaign rhetoric was extremely bitter between the Congress and the TMC. Banerjee, not sure yet of her footing in districts north of the Bhagirathi, did not campaign personally, despite repeated urgings from her followers. A good decision, as it turned out. However, she sent her strongest defenders such as Subhendu Adhikary MP, Mukul Roy MP and Firhad Hakim, Minister for Municipal Affairs, to campaign specially at Rezinagar.

Eventually each of the contesting formations won one seat each – the TMC won Englishbazar, the Congress Rezinagar, while the Forward Bloc won Nalhati, profiting from the anti left vote split between the TMC and the Congress. The outcome has triggered a debate that still continues, regarding the prospects of major parties in the coming Panchayat elections.

Broadly speaking, what seems to be clear is that there have been no major changes in terms of political preferences among voters since 2011. That said, it is also indisputable that the Left will gain in areas where the TMC and the Congress will not fight as alliance partners, as at Nalhati. And for the BJP, life in wilderness will seemingly continue for some time yet.

Pro TMC apologists lost no time in interpreting the outcome as a kind of “victory”, the major point being that the Congress had won only at Rezinagar and lost the other two seats in won in 2011. Also, fighting for the first time on its own, the TMC had won 39.33 per cent of the votes at Englishbazar (seat won), 28.05 per cent at Nalhati (lost) and 23.9 per cent at Rezinagar(lost).

For the Congress, the loss seemed larger. While winning Rezinagar, it lost the other two seats. At Rezinagar it won 39 per cent of the votes, a drop of 10 per cent from 2011. At Nalhati, the party won 28.3 per cent of the votes, almost level with newcomer TMC, as against over 48 per cent in 2011, a fall of 20 per cent. It won over 25 per cent of votes in its former stronghold, Englishbazar, differences within the Ghani clan being a major reason for the poor show. The Left parties were even bigger losers, despite winning Nalhati. Their vote shares dropped by 11 per cent at Englishbazar, 6 per cent at Nalhati and 12 per cent a Rezinagar.

From this TMC spokesmen concluded their party was now firmly launched in central Bengal districts, for the first time. And if it continued to win votes in new territories at the present rate, it would certainly emerge as the biggest party in the panchayat polls.

So far, so good. But what TMC leaders left unsaid was that fighting on its own, without its alliance with the Congress, the party had claimed only third place at Nalhati and Rezinagar, behind other parties. Also, the Congress was not the big loser as was being projected.

Ever since the TMC was formed in January 1998, the share of Congress votes had been reduced in the state to between 12 to 16 per cent of the aggregate. But in these by elections, fighting on its own, the party’s share in the total votes polled were over 39 per cent, 28 per cent and 25 per cent! “How can anyone say that the Congress has ended up as the biggest loser?”, asked a Pradesh Congress leader.

Its support among the rural poor and the disarray within the left, would ensure that the TMC would remain strong in South Bengal districts for some time to come, It enjoys the support of the minorities too, but interestingly that has not been reflected in the by-poll results. In fact, the TMC’s electoral success began from 2008 panchayat polls, climaxing in 2011 Assembly polls and before that the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. “It is the TMC’s worst performance in west Bengal elections since 2008, which is all the more remarkable as it has been the ruling party in the state since 2011, over two years now. In fact, they should start worrying,” said a CPI(M) spokesman.

Clearly the state electorate remains evenly divided between the three major contending formations, the TMC, the Congress and the Left, with the BJP coming a distant fourth, as the state braces for the next Panchayat polls. Added to this general message of the by elections is the signal that people of the state have begun judging the TMC in terms of its performance, and the initial euphoria over the Left’s defeat is over. (IPA Service)