It is a formidable challenge for him, with all his cunning rhetoric, to under-cut arch-rival AIADMK Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, now riding a popular wave, and with her own ambition to grab all the TN seats (39) in Lok Sabha to assert her national stature. She has placed herself, as of now, in an unassailable position politically by a series of actions including strident advocacy of equal rights for Sri Lankan Tamils.

This puts her way ahead of her bete noire on an issue that keeps Tamil Nadu in a state of agitation. Even a substantial margin of seats for AIDMK over rival would give Ms. Jayalalithaa a dominant role in the shaping of the post-election dispensation or policy-making at the Centre. This is premised on the notion of no winning combination emerging from the poll, either Congress-led or BJP-headed, and, if at all, forcing one of them into the wolves of coalition, as bitterly experienced by UPA in its decade of wielding power and perfunctory governance.

A greater sense of urgency, however, grips Mr Karunanidhi, the 90-year old dreamer of creating a land of Dravidian supremacy - a paradise he lost in 2011 - to regain national relevance in the near future while hoping that he or his progeny would make good in the next Assembly election in 2016 and restore “Dravidian prestige”.

Ms. Jayalalithaa has, from the beginning, tried to make herself the authentic voice of Tamil Nadu combining her combative style, on every issue affecting the interests of the people of Tamil Nadu, often resisting what she viewed as UPA’s inroads into the rights and autonomy of States in both political and economic spheres. She has opposed the Centre’s policies and reform proposals including FDI in multi-brand retail and diesel price hikes, a line duly taken up also by UPA ally DMK. She has thus served a role model for leaders in states ruled by BJP or other non-Congress parties.

In regard to Sri Lanka, she took the lead soon after assuming office in 2011 in calling attention to the plight of Sri Lankan Tamils, the way Colombo decimated LTTE, committing “unpardonable acts” and leaving lakhs of displaced Sri Lankan Tamils on the margin of survival. Early on, she demanded an economic boycott of the Rajapakse regime, and later took actions which resulted in halting of training facilities for Sri Lankan defence personnel in Tamil Nadu and refusal to host the 20th Asian Athletics Championship in Chennai (July 2013) if there was to be Sri Lankan participation in it.

Sri Lanka tops the “hot” issues in the pre-election competitive populism indulged in by the two Dravidian majors and other political outfits in the State. President Rajapakse has rejected any UN intervention or call for accountability. Nor has he so far given the slightest indication of embarking on a process of political reconciliation.

For the second time, the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) would take up, possibly on March 23, a US resolution calling for greater access to UN personnel in Sri Lanka and a probe into allegations of violations of human rights. On the last occasion, India voted for the resolution with some modifications, not well received by the Tamil Nadu parties but treated with contempt by Colombo.

The new resolution, incorporating some suggestions by India such as taking the island government into confidence, similar to the one tabled in March 2012, also urges “unfettered access” to UN Special Rapporteurs looking into areas like judicial independence in Sri Lanka and includes emphasis on devolution of power to Tamils. It remains to be seen whether India would do some meddling with this keeping regional strategy in view.

Tamil Nadu MPs, both AIADMK and DMK, had been calling for a commitment by the Manmohan Singh Government to extend unqualified support to the resolution. The MPs have staged walk-outs, joined by others in the opposition, in the absence of any reassurance by Government. Indications were that India would want the resolution to sound “non-intrusive”. The External Affairs Minister Mr Salman Khurshid cryptically remarked, “India would take the best possible decision”.

Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, while replying to the debate on the President’s address to Parliament, made no reference to the resolution beyond continuing to urge Sri Lanka “to take the initiative to talk to the Tamil leadership”. All that he could add for the disappointed Tamil Nadu MPs, was that India’s efforts would be to ensure that Tamil people got “the chance to lead a life of dignity and self-respect as equal citizens” in Sri Lanka.

Indeed, the Sri Lankan problem, depending on the outcome of UN vote, would determine the future of the Congress-DMK alliance even though political compulsions could still keep this uneasy arrangement going into the next Lok Sabha poll. Mr Karunanidhi has warned that if demand for independent probe is not conceded, “my (DMK) continuation in the Ministry will be meaningless”. He wants India to get an unequivocal resolution in Geneva.

For Ms. Jayalalithaa, there are no ambiguities and her path is clear, to concentrate on her “Delhi Chalo” in the run-up to 2014 elections. She was elated by the notification of the Cauvery Tribunal Award on February 20, “the happiest day in my life”, coming as it did on the eve of her 65th birthday. Her success in getting the Centre to notify the award by moving the apex court was hailed by farmers of the Cauvery delta, who joined the state-wide birthday celebrations.

The award, she said, marked the “culmination” of her struggle of over two decades and Karnataka “cannot hereafter refuse to obey the Tribunal order”. She has demanded that the Centre should set up a monitoring mechanism to oversee the implementation of the final order of the Cauvery Tribunal, which has accorded a much larger share of Cauvery waters to Tamil Nadu by the upper riparian state of Karnataka. Not to be completely upstaged by the AIADMK leader on Cauvery, a life-line for Tamil Nadu, Mr Karunanidhi thanked the Prime Minister for award publication while recalling he had been lobbying with the Centre on the river water dispute for long years.

There are no signs of any political realignment to take shape in anticipation of the Lok Sabha elections, which are assumed to take place in April-May 2014. The Sri Lankan Tamils is one issue on which each wants to outwit the other. State outfits lie low at present, like PMK of Dr Ramadoss and MDMK of Mr Vaiko, who, however, has grabbed headlines with anti-Rajapakse demonstrations.

The DMK’s call for a general strike in the name of Tamil Eelam Supporters Organisation (TESO) on March 12 had a partial response without affecting essential services. But a new warning sign is the state-wide students agitation, demanding a referendum in Sri Lanka for a Tamil home, ‘Eelam’” and for Mr Rajapakse to be tried for “war crimes”. (IPA Service)