’We had kept the target of revenue increase at 25 per cent through the great combination of integrity and transparency based on an e-driven fiscal reform. You will be happy to know that we will exceed the target to reach 30 per cent (29.94 per cent) — according to revised estimate), which had never happened in the history of West Bengal. In this financial year, our revenue collection target was fixed at Rs 31,000 crore taking the growth rate at 25 per cent. You will be happy to know that we will exceed the targeted tax collection (according to revised estimate) and cross the Rs. 32,000 Crore mark. Even this is a historic all time record… State is on the threshold of crossing the Own Tax GDP ratio of 5 per cent I congratulate Bengal’s great business community’ This is against the LF government’s ability to collect Rs 21,000 Crore of ‘own taxes’… Within two years time, this Government was able to collect a whopping additional Rs. 11,000 Crore from the most spontaneous and proud tax payers of Bengal.’

However, even many leaders of the TMC know well that the budget speech looks like a failed attempt to window-dress the precarious financial state. The chief minister and TMC chairperson Mamata Bandopadhyay repeats pointing out that against the monthly debt-servicing of Rs 25,000 crores a month, the corresponding revenue and other inflows add up to Rs 21,000 crores.

Little wonder, international rating agencies like Fitch refute rosy claims, Dr Mitra knows well. Pointing out that the state expects its current revenue to be up by 30 per cent to Rs 76,900 crores on a year-on-year basis and own tax revenue by 26 per cent to Rs 31,400 crores in 2012-13, Fitch's International Public Finance team cautioned that it would be a tough task for state tax administration to attain the projected own tax revenue growth next fiscal. “Despite the slow pace of fiscal consolidation, higher nominal growth of the state economy in relation to interest rate on debt and a reduction in primary deficit provide some cushion to the fragile debt position of West Bengal,” quipped the team director Devendra Kumar Pant.

The state FM claims that in contrast to the national GDP of 4.96 per cent during 2012-13, “Bengal’s GDP grew by 7.6% (on the basis of ‘advance estimate’) and against the national growth of 1.79 per cent The state government claims that in 2011-12, it “procured 20.5 Lakh Metric Ton of rice which was an all time record. In 2012-13 financial year, the procurement target is 22 Lakh Metric Tons and I am sure we will reach this target…. Our granaries are overflowing”.

A strongly assertive Dr Mitra, stated further “Seventy per cent of our people live in Rural Bengal and that is where the change is so clearly captured by recent data. Keeping up the routine broadsides at the LF government in a bluntly politicised manner, he said that in 2010-11, the final year of the regime, “Agriculture and Allied Services grew by negative 0.74 per cent -shameful indeed. When we came to office in 2011-12 within the remaining 10 months Agriculture and Allied Services reversed its negative direction and entered the positive zone with a growth of 1.84 per cent During this full year of office, Agriculture and Allied Services clocked a growth of 2.56 per cent”

However, almost an opposite scenario was presented by Prof Pranab Bardhan, professor of economics, University of California, Berkeley. “According to our survey, over 80 per cent of male members in peasant households want to shift to other means of livelihood”, Dr Bardhan said in his Samar Sen Memorial Oration, under the aegis of well-known socio-cultural and literary Bengali periodical, Anustup, in Kolkata last week-end. Agriculture as means of livelihood, internationally well-known quantitative economist, inferred, turned increasingly insecure in West Bengal during the three decades of CPI (M)-led Left Front regime. Almost completely in contrast to the Economic Review for 2011-12, noted Prof Badhan, Agriculture accounts for “about 18 per cent of state domestic product”.

The budget speech of the state FM, read with the economic review, gives an impression that he is keener on keeping the chief minister Mamata Bandyopadyay, chairperson of All India Trinamool Congress happy than adhering to his constitutional commitment in projecting the true picture of the economy of the state. He patted his own back for reduction of average annual man-day loss of 76.4 Lakhs during 2007-10 to 5,202 in 2012-13, but thanked the people of Bengal and “congratulate Mamata Bandyopadhyay (by name) or her unshakable determination to change the work culture of the State”. This is a practice, never witnessed at least in West Bengal and unthinkable from an economist with a Ph.D. from the Duke University, USA.

The state FM added that in agriculture and allied sectors, clocked a 2.56 per cent growth. In the arena of industry, the state FM expressed things in a no less hyperbolic tone. “while industry grew by 3.12 per cent in India as a whole, your beloved Bengal’s industry grew by 6.24 per cent”, according to Dr Mitra, although not a memorandum of agreement for large industrial investment has been signed under the new regime. There is no reason for being cheerful at having received investment proposals amounting to Rs.1,12,769.36 crore in 257 units since May, 2011,unless these are at least given a kick start with conversion of MoA (not just memorandum of understanding).

The assumption of 2.56 per cent growth in 2012-13 looks fuzzy, as the results of summer rice crop (Bodo) are yet to be known, he argued. The claim of industrial sector witnessed a 6.24 per cent growth during 2012- 13 is “even more misleading”, added Dr Asim Dasgupta Dasgupta, a member of W Bengal state committee of CPI(M) and Dr Mitra’s predecessor. He argues that the growth index of West Bengal's industrial sector came down to one per cent in 2012- 13 against 2.9 per cent in 2011-12.

Dr Mitra said that surpassing the target of creating 10 lakh additional jobs in the state, “between April, 2012 and January, 2013 new employment generated was estimated at 10,24,521, crossing our target. By March end this figure will further swell. Employment generation is one of the key objectives of this Government led by Mamata Bandopadhayay. I therefore announce a target of 13,14,000 new employment during 2013-14”

Dr Dasgupta blasted the claim that 10,24,521 new jobs were created in the first nine months of current fiscal. Quoting data from the economic review and report of the State Level Bankers' Committee (SLBC), West Bengal and CSO reports, the figure is no more than 1,00,000. Dr Dasgupta, having been a professor of economics for three decades at the department of economics, University of Kolkata, sought to refute almost all the claims made in the budget speech.

It’s not that there are no innovative impress in the budget proposals. The incentive scheme for unmarried girls in the age-group 13-18, Kanyashree ,for economically weaker families for whose guardians’ income is less than Rs. 50,000 per annum to prevent child marriage, trafficking and school dropout and improve maternal and child health through prevention of early pregnancies is praiseworthy. Each of girls is promised an annual scholarship of Rs. 500 per annum for classes VIII to XII if they are attending formal/open school and a lump-sum incentive of Rs. 25,000 on completion of 18 years if they are in formal/open school/recognized vocational training course. Similarly, the on-going and extended school-leaving Scholarship to 7,60,000 scheduled caste and scheduled tribe students at an outlay of Rs. 250 Crores up to December, 2012. This is extended to 1,16,000 OBC students. “In the calendar year 2012 and up to 31st December, 2012, 6,98,332 caste certificates have been issued by this Government of ‘Ma-Mati-Manush’”, Dr Mitra asserted. But given by the past experience, such assurances end up in pious platitudes.

Both Dr Mitra and Dr Dasgupta may look deeper into the four field surveys made by Prof Bardhan with well-known economists such as the late Dr Ashok Rudra and Dr Dilip Mukherjee at different points of time since the late 1970s instead of indulging in mutual rebuttal. It is time to give a fresh and dispassionate look at the rural sector. Otherwise in the not-too-remote future many rural communities will turn fragile with a disturbing co-existence of hunger and human rights abuses. (IPA Service)