Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar had given broad hints about his reservations about Modi more than once. Now, the JD (U) has clarified that the BJP can choose for the NDA only if it is not Modi. Instead, it has to be a secular person.

If a number of BJP leaders and rank and file are still trying to keep the issue open by acting as Modi’s cheerleaders, they probably assume that somehow they will be able to bend the JD (U) to their view. However, the pressure tactic is an odd exercise considering that there is no unanimity in the BJP itself on Modi.

As much is clear, first, from the fact that although Modi is being hailed for his popularity, there has been no mention of the possibility of the party anointing him as the prime ministerial candidate. And, secondly, the support given to L.K. Advani in this context by the chief of BJP’s Delhi unit, Vijay Goel, the retired Bollywood star, Shatrughan Sinha, the Hindutva hawk, Vinay Katiyar, and, belatedly, Yashwant Sinha, shows that the old war horse has let it be known within the party that he is not prepared to walk into the sunset, as his detractors must have been hoping.

What may have kept Advani’s hopes alive is the realisation that in the ultimate analysis, Modi will not be able to live down the doubts about his suspected complicity in the Gujarat riots of 2002, notwithstanding the fawning ovations given to him by businessmen and upper class ladies. It is this calculation which must have been behind Advani’s articulation of a “secular” blueprint for the party for reaching out to the minorities.

In the written portion of his speech to the party’s national executive (which he did not read out), he had called for an “imaginative re-projection of our commitment to secularism”. The BJP, in his view, should reassure the minorities that “we brook no discrimination or injustice in dealing with different sections of our diverse society”. This advice can be said to be a reiteration of the need to observe raj dharma, which was stressed by Atal Behari Vajpayee during his visit to Gujarat at the time of the riots, and which has again been recalled by the JD (U) to hint at Modi’s culpabilities.

As the JD (U) general secretary, K.C. Tyagi, pointed out, “as head of the government, Modi neither showed promptness nor magnanimity” during the outbreak. It is a criticism which echoes the Gujarat high court’s indictment last year that “the fact that the riots continued for several days suggests lack of appropriate action or adequate action, if not inaction, on the part of the state”.

Now that the JD (U) has joined Shatrughan Sinha and others in backing Advani, the BJP will not be find it easy to be dismissive about the demand because, after all, Advani is the party’s senior most leader in Vajpayee’s absence. Although few will consider his prospects to be bright after his failure in 2009, his presence at the helm will at least be expected to keep the NDA together – something which is unlikely if Modi is chosen.

As a last ditch effort on Modi’s behalf, the BJP may try to convince the JD (U) rank and file that a split in the NDA will only be of benefit to Lalu Prasad Yadav and, perhaps, the Congress in Bihar. However, the various olive branches which the Manmohan Singh government is holding out to the JD (U) – special economic status for Bihar, mining rights, etc – can initiate a major realignment of political forces in line with the idea of a “UPA-plus”, which the Congress once mentioned.

For the present, what is clear is that Modi has come up against a major roadblock. His party may try to help him by insisting, as Rajnath Singh has done, on his “India-first” secularism. But, it can hardly be convincing. Simultaneously, insidious attempts may be made to denigrate the term, as Advani and Co did during the Ram temple agitation, equating it with “minority appeasement”. Or, Modi’s drum-beaters can argue that the country has “moved on” from the secular-communal dichotomy and is focussed on development instead.

Such a campaign may have helped the Hindu hriday samrat if it was directed against his opponents outside the NDA. But, since allegations about his image of being a Muslim-baiter are coming from within the NDA, it will not be easy to mock them or brush them aside. To use the Supreme Court’s phrase, the “modern-day Nero’s” prime ministerial ambitions are floundering on the rocks of the “stray incidents” of 2002, as Modi called the riots. (IPA Service)