Now on the eve of the completion of the second year of the term, the Mamata government is facing the real political crisis for the first time with the bursting of the ‘Saradha bubble’. As things stand today, the universal Didi of Bengal is in a complete state of shock, without any idea of how best the situation can be handled. She has announced certain promises and actions, constituted an enquiry commission, and set up a corpus of Rs 500 crore with an advice to the people to smoke more so that she can earn greater revenues from cigarettes to help the victims.

Initially, she had made certain mistakes, which had generated criticism without affecting her rural base. Her first controversial step was the Singur Ordinance, which promised to return land to the unwilling farmers. The Ordinance and the subsequent legislation were challenged in the court of law, and the West Bengal government knows it well that a defeat is in the offing. It was an administration and political lapse but did not do any harm to her rural support. The arrest of Ambikesh Mahapatra, a professor of chemistry, for forwarding emails carrying caricature of the Chief Minister, and Shiladitya Chowdhury, a farmer for asking her unpleasant questions; the thrashing of college principals in various districts by TMC goons to take control of the institutions’ unions; transfer of an able lady police officer, who was investigating the Park Street rape case; the announcement of compensation to the families of hooch tragedy; decision of monthly remuneration of Imam and Muazims of mosques; and finally, transferring the Kolkata Police Commissioner — all irked the educated urban middle class to a great extent. These sections of her followers, who had lent support for the sake of ‘poribartan,’ were disillusioned when she started quarrelling with the Centre and finally withdrew support keeping the debt-ridden state in limbo. But these people do not form her core support base, they were add-ons, like the icing on the cake. Hence, antagonising them did not cost her heavily. She was unperturbed and unchanged till the Saradha swindle surfaced.

It is not true that the Bengalis did not experience this kind of fraud in the past. During the initial years of the Left Front rule, a few organisations had gained notoriety. Sanchayita became a household name, duped gullible depositors of crore of rupees, affecting lower and middle class people of the state. The Left Front government’s then finance minister, Asoke Mitra, had announced a jihad and roped in the perpetrators to book. The government had even announced the return of money, formed committees, but was never been able to fulfil the promise. After a couple of decades, when the Front government was being seriously challenged by the Mamata brigade and the Left leaders were facing serious organisational problems, these non-banking, money laundering, fraudulent Ponzi scheme-owners started operating from the various corners of the state. It will be untrue to say that the Left leaders did not have any clue to this mushrooming of fraudulent operators. The truth is that the Front leaders did not pay any heed to the threat. They were busy in saving their crumbling citadel. The wind of change was blowing strong and the cleaver Ponzi operators changed their loyalties overnight from red to green.

In the absence of rigorous central laws to combat this menace, few changes took place that encouraged the low-income groups to jump onto the ‘Cheat Fund’ bandwagon. The thorough banking regulations, restrictions on offering certain types of loans, regulated deposit and lending rates, banking industries’ limited reach, stricter KYC norms, and lowering the post office interest rates and agents’ commission have led these shady companies to flourish. The case of West Bengal Small Savings Schemes can be an eye opener. Till 2008-9, West Bengal was No. 1 in small savings. Over Rs 9,000 crores were deposited in post offices. But as the winds of change started blowing, the scenario also started shifting. Consecutive years saw the post office deposits touching the lowest ebb, as low as less than Rs 200 crores last year, and the tremendous growth of these shady companies simultaneously. According to an RBI report, no less than Rs 65,000 crores have been collected in West Bengal in 2012 alone. It is needless to say that without the patronage of some of the ruling party leaders, it would not have been possible. So when Mamata declares she was unaware of this until Sudipta Sen’s letter to the CBI Director was leaked, it sounds ridiculous. Record shows her leaders were at the helm of affairs of these companies, they volunteered in media business, employed her trusted journalists with fattest salaries and entrusted them to propagate the performance of the government according to their will, and distributed peoples’ money as protection fee. The Saradhas of West Bengal had only one aim: the government should not come in the way of their business. They should be free to collect money so that they can flourish and meet the demand of the netas. How the greed of these trusted cronies of Mamata crossed all limits and infuriated Sudipta Sen is a different story.

Why is this the first real political and social crisis that Mamata is facing? Firstly, it has affected the aam aadmi of rural and urban Bengal, who wanted to earn a little more knowingly or unknowingly. These companies were openly publicising the proximity with the ruling elite, which gave a kind of idea that they ware patronised by Didi. Nearly 30 per cent collection commission encouraged local TMC leaders to become its agents. Most of these agents are now facing the wrath and are being beaten up by local depositors. In the process, the support base of the party is on the verge of erosion. Everyone is pinning hope on Didi, but she does not have a magic wand. The proposed 500 crore fund can certainly not be the answer where at least n amount of Rs 20,000 crores is involved. People have started withdrawing deposits and the TMC leaders are encouraging and advising them to do so. This again is creating another problem as the companies are facing the money crunch that is creating law and order problems as well. Moreover, there comes the question of law, whether the taxpayers’ money can be distributed whimsically. Over and above, dissensions are mounting in the rank and file, old leaders are demanding action against the new entrants who have directly been benefited and maligned the image of the party. Lastly, Mamata’s personal image of honesty has been tarnished for the first time and the opposition is not wasting any time to gain political mileage out of that.

Fortunately, when Mamata joined issues with the State Election Commission over the jurisdiction of holding panchayat election, the bubble was intact. It was a blessing in disguise to her that the panchayat poll was postponed, else it would have had a direct bearing on the result. That fear of backfire is still there and will remain if Didi fails to put balm on the wounds of those affected. She is fortunate that there is no Mamata either in the Left Front or in the Congress. But then that alone cannot be the saving grace. She will have to act now as this has cast a heavy shadow over her own support base, party, and image. (IPA)