Will the top Akali brass’s wishes be fulfilled? Or, will the history of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections be repeated in 2014? An attempt to answer the questions can be made by analyzing the factors responsible for the outcome of the 2008 and 2013 panchayat elections and those which may play a decisive role in the outcome of 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

What are the reasons for the Congress’s humiliating defeat in the last week’s panahcyaat elections? These showed a sizable section of the horizontally and vertically divided party leadership including the former chief minister Capt. Amarinder Singh keeping away from poll campaign. Though Pratap Singh Bajwa who had replaced Amarinder Singh as PCC chief did demonstrate some of his predecessor’s fighting spirit against the Akali Dal, his endeavour failed to fetch the desired results. Among the main reasons for the party’s debacle are the dwindling cadre at the grassroots level and late start of poll campaign. The party deserved the rout it suffered.

Claims and counter claims have been made by top Akali leaders and opposition leaders about the way poll was conducted. Chief Minister and his controversial DGP claimed the elections were conducted in a “free, fair and peaceful manner”. The entire opposition was unanimous in condemning booth capturing, particularly in chief minister’s home constituency Lambi. Even the Akali Dal’s coalition partner BJP’s former minister and its national vice president Laxmi Kanta Chawla held “Punjab government responsible for violence during campaigning for the panchayat elections which claimed four lives.”

For knowing the veracity of these claims and counter-claims, one needs to scan the on-the-spot reports filed by newspapers staffers on the polling in some of the constituencies hit by violence and booth-capturing particularly in Malwa region. These reports speak of the goons capturing some polling booths with the policemen turning their faces away. The most serious incident took place in Lambi’s Mann village, the venue of the clash between Akali and Congress workers. The clash followed the Akali goons allegedly capturing the polling booth. As a reaction, the Congress workers allegedly torched six polling vehicles “belonging to Akali workers from nearby Bhatinda district”.

The police “on the statement of a wounded Akali worker”, registered criminal cases under 13 different sections of the IPC including the one for attempt to murder against 100-125 unidentified and 25 identified Congress workers”. A larger number of Congress workers protested outside the police station demanding registering of a criminal case against Akali workers for booth capturing in a number of villages including Mann. But no case was registered as the police said “a memorandum could not be considered as a written complaint. It is just a reminder to initiate action”. The police even failed to take action on the basis of a picture published in a prominent English Daily showing youths fleeing by jumping over the boundary wall of a booth they tried to capture at Mann. This indicates the extent to which Punjab police has been politicized and used as an instrument to serve the ruling party’s political interests.

The factors which have mainly contributed to the Akalis victory in panchayat elections are not likely to work in 2014. The deployment of central security forces and a vigilant Election Commission would make it difficult to browbeat voters and capture poll booths. These factors had contributed to the Congress’s winning eight of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2009.

Besides anti-incumbency, another important factor which may upset the ruling coalition’s dream of sweeping 2014 poll will be the possibility of seat adjustment, if not an alliance, between the Congress, four-parties Sanjha Morcha and possibly BSP. They had made seat adjustments for panchayat polls in some places with positive rewards.

2014 Lok Sabha poll willl be the real test between Akali-BJP coalition and the Congress-led opposition in Punjab. (IPA)