TMC winner Prasun Banerjee ex national footballer accounted for 44.52 per cent of the aggregate votes in getting 4,26,387 votes . However, Mr, Sreedeep Bhattacharya of the CPI(M) got 3,99, 422 votes , giving Banerjee a narrow margin of around 27,000 votes. This gave h The CPI-M nominee 41.71 per cent of the aggregate votes.

Far more important for the Left opposition, , the percentage reflected a nearly 4% increase in the CPI(M) vote over 2011 Assembly election figures. The Howrah parliamentary seat covers seven Assembly segments, all of which were won by the TMC in 2011. In fact the TMC swept 15 out of 16 seats in the district in the last Assembly polls.

Now two years on, not only has the left vote increased, the CPI(M) ended up ahead of the TMC in two out of the seven Assembly seats ! An added sweetener for the opposition is that for the first time since the 2009 LS polls, the left has managed to increase its vote share. Since the 2009 LS polls, through the civic elections, the 2011 Assembly polls, and even the recent assembly by elections in 3 seats, the share of left votes went on registering a steady decline.

This alarming trend has finally been reversed in Howrah . No wonder left leaders and analysts lost no time in noting the significance of the Howrah results. The Congress(I), whose candidate Sanatan Mukherjee, a local lawyer with a good reputation, did not measure up to expectations, getting only around 96,743 votes. In fact this was only a little more than the traditional number of votes usually won by the BJP from Howrah, around 60,000.

The BJP stayed away from the contest this time, explaining that it did not have enough resources to fight the by-election and to prepare for the coming panchayat polls at the same time. This fuelled speculation that it was only helping the ruling TMC by reducing the extent of division in the anti TMC votes. Despite the half-hearted denials from BJP state party President Rahul Sinha , this line of thought was only confirmed by his comments :” We have asked our supporters not to vote for either the Cong(I) or the CPI(M) In fact we told them to vote for a non- political person” a clear reference to the TMC”s footballer candidate! “This is the first time that I heard the leader of a national party urging people to vote for a non political person during a Lok sabha election,” said analyst Udayan Banerjee.

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, did not seem to be unduly worried about the narrow margin of victory, a sad commentary on the TMC “s two year rule in the state. “We contested singly against the Cong(I), the CPI(M) and the BJP in Howrah and still won . This will lead to better performance in the panchayat polls. The people are with us and they were not influenced by the ceaseless , scurrilous political campaign against us by some parties and media persons. I think regional parties will do better in the next LS polls,” she told newsmen. The TMC she said, had a base in three states already. In passing she did not lose the opportunity to score a few points against the State Election commission and the central government.

Minister for Industries Partha Chatterjee was more circumspect .He said, “A win is a win and the margin does not matter “, an indirect acknowledgement of the close fight, during which CPI(M)”s Bhattacharya had occasionally seized the lead over his TMC opponent during the counting of votes.

Several pointers are available from the Howrah by poll result. First, the decks have been cleared by a tie-up between the TMC and the NDA . Ms Banerjee never attacked the BJP in the same manner as the Congress or the CPI(M) , all through the pre poll campaigning and even the post poll period. The Gujarat results in favour of Mr, Narendra Modi and the BJP did not escape her notice. She had not attended Mr, Modi”s function in Kolkata but Modi had praised her.

At the same time, she did not specifically rule out an understanding with the Cong(I) either. She referred to the Prime Minister”s recent remarks to the effect that “There are no permanent friends or enemies” in politics .

Second, the left parties will definitely feel encouraged by their strong showing in Howrah, within two years of TMC rule in the state. An increasing left assertiveness during the panchayat poll campaign will be countered by the rampaging TMC supporters and workers in the days ahead, which will spell trouble for West Bengal.

Third, the Congress will have to work harder in the state. It won around 10% of the total votes in Howrah, but then the party is not known to be strong in South Bengal. Explaining the reason for the poor showing, a spokesman said, “ After a long time that we fought an LS election singly. During the last decade, we have fought in an alliance with the TMC mostly. We were treated as junior partners. Most of our senior and major leaders gradually switched over to the TMC., as our central leaders pressed for an alliance with the TMC. The erosion then affected lower levels as well. In fact we fought as a depleted unit and could not win around 20 to 30 per cent of the total votes as we do in North Bengal districts.’

Ms Banerjee”s show of confidence notwithstanding, observers feel the narrowness of the victory margin in Howrah, where the chief Minister had campaigned for no less than six days, would indicate that the opposition parties were closing in on the ruling TMC more quickly than she realizes. During the next few weeks, her work as the party”s chief and only vote catcher in the state would be cut out as the campaign for panchatat polls warm up. (IPA)