Before we dwell on the twin issues in the context of the 2014 Haryana Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, a brief look at the outcome of the corporations elections.

The Congress and the BJP’s ally Haryana Janhit Congress headed by the former chief minister late Bhajan lal’s son Kuldeep Bishnoi had not contested the elections on their party symbols. On the other hand the jailed former chief minister Om Parkash Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal and the BJP contested on their party symbols. Out of the total 144 wards, the two parties won 16 and 25 wards respectively. Independents emerged victorious in 103 wards. The Congress claimed that most of the Independents were backed by the Congress. Before the polls, the opposition parties had claimed that the Corporations elections would be semi-final of the next year’s Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Haryana. But after the results were announced the vanquished opposition claimed that these were only a “practice match” and the final match will be played in 2014.

Such arguments raise the question whether in this era of changing political alignments and the peoples growing disillusionment with politicians and political parties, should the outcome of the municipal corporations polls be treated as a realistic barometer to predict the outcome of higher elective bodies polls? Past experience shows it is not always so. To quote the latest example. The Akali-BJP alliance had won the Punjab Assembly elections in 2007. In 2008 it also swept the panchayat polls for which it even misused the official machinery and indulged in booth capturing, particularly in its stronghold of Malwa region. But in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress humbled the ruling allies by winning eight of the 13 Lok Sabha seats.

Local bodies elections are usually won by the ruling party. People expect that because of their contacts in local and state’s corridors of power the candidates of the ruling party can be more helpful in solving their civic problems and tackle development issues.

Using the above yardstick to Judge the outcome of the municipal corporations elections, one cannot find fault with chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and the PCC president Phool Chand Mullana’s claim that most of the winning 103 Independents belong to their party.

The opposition has suffered a serious setback. After INLD supremo Chautala’s imprisonment in the JBT teachers recruitment scam, there were signs of a pro-Chautala sympathy wave which boosted the party workers morale. But the results of municipal corporations poll have shown that the sympathy wave has faded. The party could win only in 16 of the 144 wards and was placed third in the list. Haryana Jan Hit Congress did not officially contest the elections though some of its members reportedly contested on the BJP symbol.

In the backdrop of the above facts, there is no possibility of the Haryana municipal corporations polls outcome affecting the electoral fortunes of the contesting parties in the 2014 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. It is the factors like state of political parties health and political alignments which will determine the outcome of the 2014 elections in Haryana.

Habits die hard particularly in the case of the Congress. The state’s ruling Congress leadership never tires of claiming that there is no rift in the ruling party. But the claim usually falls flat. The latest example is of the two senior Congress leaders Union Minister Selja and the All-India Congress Committee general secretary Birender Singh besides Rajya Sabha member Ishwar Singh publicly charging the Hooda government with “oppressing of Dalits and tardy implementation of policies and programmes of the Centre for the uplift of Dalits”. The chief minister has refuted the charges which were leveled by the two central leaders, ironically one day before the chief minister was scheduled to launch the Priyadarshini Awas Yojna in Karnal which made online transfer of the first instalment of the cash subsidy of Rs.25,000 to 30 beneficiaries.

The question is whether the party high command will be able to affect a patch-up between the rival camps on the eve of the elections, a ritual which it has followed but has often been sabotaged by the feuding party groups in the past.

The BJP has, over the years, substantially lost its mass base which has also reflected in its nosediving strength in the state Assembly. It is doubtful if the party’s alliance with Haryana Jan Hit Congress whose influence is also restricted to a few pockets like Hisar will help it broaden its base. Besides, there is conflict of interest between the two parties as urban areas are their common base.

It is in this context that the move for an alliance between the BJP and INLD needs to be seen. The BJP’s state leadership is strongly opposed to such an alliance. Sushma Swaraj is also opposed to the party forming an alliance with INLD. It was because of her opposition that in 1996 the party dropped the move to have an alliance with INLD and chose Bansi Lal’s Haryana Vikas Party as its ally. This helped the two capture power in Haryana in 1996. The dominant influential section of the central leadership is, however, likely to prefer an alliance with INLD which has a much wider base than the HJC and has the potential of offering a formidable opposition to the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections.

The final picture of the BJP’s alliance in Haryana will emerge only after the current turmoil in the party recedes. Till then one will have to keep one’s fingers crossed. (IPA)