In the last election in 2008, the DPT won a landslide victory, winning 45 out of 47 seats in the lower house of the National Assembly.

India has welcomed the change of regime and political analysts believe that the development, in which the Bhutanese people have shown their sense of maturity, is good for the relationship between the two countries.

The ruling DPT had planned to move away from India and establish close relations with China. The Prime Minister Jigmi Y Thinley from the DPT party met the then Chinese premier Wen Jiabao at Rio de Janeiro in Brazil last year at the sidelines of an international conference and expressed such a gesture. However, the officiating president of DPT Yeshe Zimbe later ruled out any diplomatic relations between Bhutan and China, saying the meeting between the Bhutanese Prime Minister with his Chinese counterpart was just a “courtsey call”. He clarified that Bhutan has no intention of hosting missions of any permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Reacting to Bhutan’s move, India threatened to withdraw subsidy on its supplies of LPG and kerosene.

However, now with the change of regime in Bhutan, it is expected that the bonhomie between the two immediate and strategic neighbours would continue.

The future the geopolitics in Asia will depend much on the influence of two emerging contending powers namely China and India. The Himalayan kingdom, Bhutan placed in the midst of two rivals assumes strategic importance.

India’s relationship with Bhutan has been time-tested and harmonious. China is conscious of the fact that if it can woo Bhutan into its fold, it can keep India always on the tenterhooks and spread its influence all over South Asia.

But India needs to deal with Bhutan cautiously and take care not to rub it on the wrong side, as the Himalayan country is gradually upscaling its relationship with other countries and internal changes taking place inside it with the introduction of constitutional monarchy. The situation has changed with the revision in the treaty between the two countries, effected in 2007. India can no longer directly exercise its influence on Bhutan.

In 2007, at the insistence of Bhutan, the 1949 India-Bhutan Friendship Treaty was revised. The Article-II of the original treaty, which obliged Bhutan to be guided by India, was amended. The revised Article-II says “both countries shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interest. Neither Government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interest of the other.”

The revised treaty recognises Bhutan’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” which were absent in the original treaty.

India has rightly chosen the multi-polity approach in dealing with the situation in its neighbouring countries. It also needs carefully study the demographic politics. Bhutan’s population is divided among three main groups – Sharchops in eastern Bhutan, Lhotshampas in southern Bhutan and Ngalungs (or Drukpas) in western Bhutan. Ngalungs, who earlier migrated from Tibet, exercise influence over monarchy.

The young monarch of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel, is an alumnus of the National Defence College of India and is a friend of our country. India began extending its diplomatic gestures by inviting him to be the Chief Guest at the 64th Republic Day Parade this year. Though monarchy in Bhutan still enjoys some powers, India needs to extended similar gestures to the emerging democratic forces.

Bhutan has a burgeoning civil society with 16 NGOs covering a wide range of issues. There are about nine newspapers and magazines, 37 publishing houses, several radio stations and a public television channel. According to the Press Freedom Index 2010 of the Reporters Without Borders, Bhutan’s media ratings have improved to 64th rank from the low of 157th rank in 2003.

The national media in Bhutan has been expressing concerns over the domination of Indian construction companies and benefits that accrue from joint agreement on hydel power development. Some members of the National Assembly had expressed concern over the location of headquarters of the Indian Military Training Team (IMTRAT) in the historic Haa fort. IMTRAT trains and equips the Royal Bhutan Army and prepares its personnel for further training in military establishments in India.

China is playing a hard ball on boundary issue with Bhutan and has so far built six roads close to Bhutan’s border towns in the north and northwest. According to a statement by the Secretary of International Boundaries of Bhutan, Dasho Pema Wangchuk, Chinese forces had come 17 times to army posts of Bhutan in 2009. Since 2007, Chinese forces have dismantled several unmanned posts in Bhutanese territory.

The boundary issue between Bhutan and China remain unresolved. The boundary in northwestern and central Bhutan has not been demarcated, thus making the strategic Chumbi valley – a vital tri-junction between Bhutan, India and China, which is five km from the Siliguri corridor in India – a space of contested aspirations.

Losing Siliguri corridor would mean India snapping direct contact with its northeastern region. The Siliguri corridor, otherwise called the “Chicken’s Neck” connects India to its northeastern territory, Nepal and Bhutan.

Voices for settling border dispute with China is gaining momentum in the National Assembly. If the border dispute is settled in China’s favour then its influence in Bhutan’s northwestern part namely Haa, Paro and Samste would increase and make India’s Siliguri corridor strategically vulnerable.

Bhutan and China had 19 rounds of border talks. In the last round of talks it was decided to have a joint field survey with a view to harmonise the reference points and names of the disputed areas, particularly in the western sector of Bhutan which constitute the pastoral lands of Doklam, Charithang, Sinchulumpa and Dramana. This exclusive focus on the western sector of Bhutan should be a worry for India owing to its geostrategic importance of sharing borders with Tibet (on the Chinese side) and Sikkim (on the Indian side)

China’s aggressive postures were clear when in 1954, 1958 and 1961, it published maps showing Bhutan as part of its territory. This made the Himalayan kingdom to look towards India for security.

India should, therefore, step up its diplomacy and the message that it is for the all round development of Bhutan and its people. It is not the issue of give and take, but an issue of national security with a strategic ally. India should extend more and more development assistance to Bhutan, give access to Bhutanese products and services in Indian market and help to preserve its environment and ecology and culture, apart from the plans for modernization of the Himalayan kingdom. Hydel projects and other investments made by India should be win-win situation for both and result in job opportunities for the Bhutanese people.

Apart from the Chinese factor, Bhutan’s help is needed to wipe out insurgent groups from northeastern India, who take refuge in that country. Bhutan borders Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, which is claimed by China. China has already planned investments in Bhutan and firming up its trade relations.

The best way to integrate this landlocked country southwards is through the forum – Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). The BIMSTEC consists of member countries like Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bhutan and Nepal. The cooperation in BIMSTEC should entail integrating the landlocked countries like Nepal and Bhutan and facilitate their exports and imports through the sea ports of other member countries. Countries like India and Bangladesh should give transit facilities for goods from and into Bhutan and Nepal.

The concept of Bhutan-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Corridor will be much in the interest of China than India. BIMSTEC bypasses the hassles caused by Pakistan in integration of South Asia and also helps to keep China at bay while at the same time opens the markets of the landlocked northeast India to that of South East Asia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. (IPA Service)