As a recent opinion poll has indicated, the NDA may find it difficult to outpace the UPA in the race for securing a majority in the Lok Sabha although the BJP itself may emerge as the No. 1 party in the House. While the Congress is likely to be hobbled by its old taint of corruption and the new one of policy paralysis, the UPA led by it will still have more allies at the end of the day because Modi will scare away the NDA’s prospective friends.

The BJP’s calculation, therefore, that Modi’s ‘popularity’ will enable the party to reach a figure close to 200 seats in the House is unlikely to come true. In any event, since the expectation is a bit of a pipedream, it comes under the ‘known knowns’ category and should have been factored in by a party, which cannot ignore the huge disadvantage of not existing in the south. There might have been the faintest of possibilities of the pipedream becoming a reality if the BJP had held on to Karnataka. But, the BS Yeddyurappa affair had kicked the ladder from under its feet.

The latest findings, therefore, will put the BJP in a quandary. As it is, the party had turned a blind eye to the possibility of the NDA’s shrinkage, scuttling its chances of gaining power at the centre. Why it did so is something of a mystery since the likelihood was staring it in the face. The party had also been warned in this respect by LK Advani, among others. But, a majority in the organisation evidently saw these objections as being motivated by personal ambition rather than objective assessment.

There may have been an element of truth in this evaluation. But, even then, it was foolhardy to ignore another ‘known known’, which is that Modi is not really an endearing personality in the political world. At least two of the three groups which support him – the saffron cadres and their soul mates, the abusive netizens, as well as the corporate sector – do so because they feel that he will serve their special interests, viz. keep the Muslims on a tight leash and create a business-friendly atmosphere, and not because they see him as a knight on a white horse with a wide measure of support.

Another pro-Modi group – the middle class – is apparently driven by the Congress’s failure to continue with the economic reforms under pressure from the ‘socialists’ led by Sonia Gandhi, which has caused the economic slump and the consequent decline in employment opportunities. If the Congress resumes its pursuit of reforms with some seriousness even at this late stage, it may still recover some of the lost ground.

The BJP has been clearly misled, therefore, by the vociferousness of the three groups to believe that they constitute a very large section of the population. Modi, too, has egged on the party with his publicity drives, which are unique in the sense that rarely before has an individual projected himself so eagerly. From the time of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, it was always the party, which did so. That the BJP leaders still have a kernel of doubt about him is evident from the fact that they have desisted from naming him as the prime ministerial candidate. The disinclination must be irksome to Modi, especially because the Janata Dal (United)’s departure has left no objectors within the NDA. But, now, the poll survey is likely to reinforce the BJP’s misgivings since the UPA is not as badly off as the Hindutva camp presumes despite LK Advani’s claim that the party will break ‘all records’.

Considering how the veteran ‘mentor’ had earlier predicted that the next prime minister may not be from either the BJP or the Congress, his latest display of optimism can perhaps be regarded as a case of whistling in the dark. It is also possible that he has decided to emerge from his sulk in the hope that he may still be the front-runner in the prime ministerial race if the poll surveys confirm that Modi is more a liability than an asset. In that event, Advani will be the best bet despite his age since he may be able to draw more allies to the NDA’s fold – even the Janata Dal (United), which cannot be sure at present whether the Congress will choose it in place of the RJD.

There is also the question of the court cases against Modi and his Man Friday, Amit Shah. It will be hugely embarrassing for the party if either of them falls foul of the law at a date close to the general election when it will be difficult to reshuffle the cards. Evidently, it is a ‘known unknown’ as to which combine – the UPA or the NDA – will make it to the corridors of power in Delhi. (IPA Service)