The latest manifestation of the IUML’s arrogance and hubris has come through its demand for more seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Top party leaders, including Industries Minister P K Kunhalikkutty and, general secretaries E T Mohammed Bashir and KPA Majeed have claimed that the IUML deserves at least three LS seats instead of the present two by virtue of its strength in the State Assembly. At present the party has a complement of 20 MLAs in the Assembly. In fact, the party has even made its preferences known: for the third seat by setting its sights on Wayanad or Vadakara, both held by the Congress in the Lok Sabha now.

There is a method to the IUML’s brinkmanship politics. Ostensibly, the demand came at a party convention held recently in preparation for the LS polls, due in May next year. Even after making allowance for the kind of rhetoric such party conferences demand, it must be said that the IUML’s aggressive assertion constitutes a stern warning to the Congress.

The party fired the first salvo by signaling its intent to go ahead with the LS poll preparations without waiting for the UDF leader, Congress to take the initiative. If necessary, the IUML would even go it alone, thundered the top leaders recently. The declarations at the party convention was the first step towards achievement of that goal.

The angry outburst denotes the IUML’s displeasure at the Congress’s refusal to sort out its internal bickering. The IUML believes that the rampant factionalism plaguing the Congress is having an adverse impact on the UDF as a whole, and could hit its prospects in the LS elections. Despite repeated requests, the Congress has not, so far, cared to heal the internal rift and the tensions generated by the aftermath of the solar scam. That explains the pressure tactics resorted to by the IUML.

The dichotomy in the Congress’s response to the IUML’s pressure politics is revealing. While the Congress leaders belonging to the A group led by Chief Minister Oommen Chandy are by and large silent, leaders belonging to the rival Vishala I group headed by KPCC president Ramesh Chennithala have been strongly critical of the IUML stance. Congress MLA K. Muralidharan, who has been unsparing in his criticism, has come down heavily on the IUML’s eying of a seat at present held by the Congress. Bargaining, at this juncture is uncalled for and unfair, he said, adding that such tactics would weaken the coalition. The Congress has made many a sacrifice to keep the coalition intact, but that should not be construed as the party’s weakness, Muralidharan cautioned the IUML leaders.

Why has the IUML toughened its stance vis-à-vis the Congress? First and foremost, the party feels that the solar scam has badly tarnished the image of the UDF Government in general and that of the Congress in particular. The adoption of a stand-offish attitude is a clear attempt by the IUML to ensure that the solar scam fallout does not affect its electoral chances in the LS polls.

Besides, the party is not confident of repeating its spectacular performance in the Assembly elections. A lot of water has flowed under the Bharatapuzha since then. The IUML is in no position to expect the kind of unprecedented support it enjoyed from the Muslim community in the assembly polls, given the changed political circumstances. This factor worries the party more than anything else. Hence its efforts to bring the community, leaders under one umbrella on issues which have a bearing on the Muslims. The party is learnt to have played a key role in getting the religious leaders to decide to move the Supreme Court for bringing down the marriageable age of Muslim girls from 18 to 16. The party thinks the move will help it reap rich electoral rewards. If the reaction to the regressive decision is any guide, it could boomerang on the party. That is why the party leaders have started of late to disassociate themselves from the religious leaders’ move. The latest tactics, therefore, betray the IUML’s sense of unease over the shape of things to come. The IUML is well and truly at the crossroads. (IPA Service)