Congress leaders themselves admit in private that the LDF could win a majority of the 20 Lok Sabha seats from the State. Government Chief Whip PC George is on record that unless the UDF applies the correctives apace, it could suffer a severe setback in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Ironically, George’s pronouncements themselves are contributing handsomely to the impending downfall of the UDF.

All this must be music to the ears of the CPI(M) and the other constituents of the LDF. But the CPI(M) must guard against lulling itself into a false sense of complacency. Moreover, it is of paramount importance that the party refrains from actions that would deprive the LDF of the distinct edge it enjoys at present. Only a ‘self goal’ can allow the thoroughly discredited rival UDF ‘back into the game’.

Unfortunately, there are signs that the State CPI(M) leadership has not fully imbibed the significance of the coming Lok Sabha elections for the party in particular. The stakes are very high for the CPI(M). Especially so, as the party’s prospects of putting up a good show in its former stronghold, West Bengal are pretty dismal. Therefore, the need for the CPI(M) to present a picture of total unity cannot be overemphasized. For, Kerala is the only state from where the party can hope to win a decent number of seats.

A recent survey says the LDF can win as many as 13 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats from the State. If the CPI(M) plays its cards well, the LDF’s tally could be even higher. The question is: will it?

Instead of laying accent on the unity theme and consolidating the party’s gains, the official leadership of the State CPI(M) is still riding its hobby horse by seeking to remove its most popular leader VS Achuthanandan from the leader of the opposition position. The meeting which the Polit Buro Commission probing the inner party issues in the Kerala unit had with the state secretariat and the state committee saw a number of leaders – hardcore supporters of state CPI(M) secretary Pinarayi Vijayan - seeking the replacement of VS as Opposition leader. The only silver lining was that many others who had earlier sought action against VS now want the party leadership to ‘recognise his worth’ and take him along to realize the larger goal of maximizing the gains from the Lok Sabha elections.

Wisely, the central leadership of the CPI(M) has also harped on the need for unity in view of the electoral combat ahead. The central leaders have made it clear that there will be no decision on the PB Commission’s report before the Lok Sabha polls. That is as it should be. For, any action against VS before the elections, bowing to the pressure of Vijayan and company, would be a recipe for disaster.

On its part, VS must also desist from words and deeds detrimental to the party at this crucial juncture. Unfortunately, his recent pronouncements which have come through a series of interviews with TV channels can only add to the confusion among the party’s rank and file. In these interviews, VS has revived the Lavalin issue and stuck to his position, which is at variance with that of the party. VS’s remarks have forced the central leadership to issue a warning to him to stop making public statements – an action the party resorts to only in the rarest of rare occasions. The latest news is that VS has cancelled an interview with another TV channel in which he is said to be extremely critical of the state party leadership. Hopefully, wiser counsels would prevail so that the CPI(M) and the LDF led by it can translate the favourable political situation into electoral gains.

Conversely, the Congress-led UDF is in utter disarray in the wake of the solar and the gold smuggling scams. The constituents are fighting among themselves like Kilkenny cats. The relations between the Congress and the Kerala Congress(M) have worsened because of the anti-Congress fulminations of the KC(M) leader and Government chief whip PC George. Despite repeated warnings of action, George has refused to stop badmouthing Congress leaders. This cannot but have an adverse impact on the UDF’s prospects in central and South Kerala.

The bitterness created by the Congress-KC(M) spat has put a question mark on the electoral chances of sitting KC(M) MP from Kottayam, Jose K Mani, son of KC(M) chief and Finance Minister K M Mani. Similarly, in Idukki, at present held by the Congress, the KC(M) cannot be expected to work sincerely for the victory of the Congress in the light of the tensions between the two parties. Not only that. The KC(M) has signalled its intent to demand an additional seat this time; they have in mind Idukki, where the party has considerable influence.

Likewise, the relations between the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League have also turned frosty. The IUML hopes to retain its seats – Malappuram and Ponnani. It may manage to win Malappuram with relative ease. But Ponnani is a different cup of tea. There both the LDF and the Congress have a strong presence. Congress leaders including Aryadan Mohammed have made it clear that the IUML cannot expect the Congress to back it wholeheartedly if the party leaders continue their diatribe against the Congress on various issues.

Also, the IUML is in no position to ensure the total support of the Muslims themselves this time, unlike the last elections. In the 2011 assembly elections, the AP faction of the Sunnis led by Kanthapuram Abubacker Musliar had backed the IUML. That is no longer the case. The IUML has angered the AP faction by changing its stand vis-à-vis the latter under pressure from the EK faction led by Samastha Kerala Jam-Iyyathul Ulema, which is the mainstay of the party. The AP faction has its areas of influence in the constituencies that make up the Ponnani Lok Sabha seat. Therefore, this time around, the IUML will have a tough fight on hand in Ponnani.

In view of these developments, the LDF is in a position to put up a good show. The UDF has alienated the majority community through its unabashed minority appeasement policy. This factor will also help the CPI(M) and the LDF to some extent.

This being the ground reality, the CPI(M) must resist its proclivity to harm its own prospects through words and deeds against the party’s most popular leader and principal vote-getter, VS Achuthanandan. VS also must defer his fight with the state leadership, at least until after the LS polls. That way lies victory in Lok Sabha polls for the CPI(M) in particular and the LDF in general. (IPA Service)