For once, the state BJP thinks there is a lot going for it in the changed political situation in the state. The majority community is seething with anger against the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) Government’s ‘unabashed minority appeasement policy’. It is this sense of resentment that the BJP is planning to tap into in the upcoming electoral battle. And the party believes the majoritarian anger would realize it to realize the long-standing dream of opening the electoral account in the state.

A sample of what could be in store for the Congress was available in the Neyyattinkara by-election. The by-election saw BJP candidate O. Rajagopal increasing the party’s votes five-fold – from 6000 odd votes in the 2011 State Assembly elections to more than 30,000 votes in the by-election, which the Congress candidate won. But it was not the victory of the Congress but the alarming rise in the BJP votes which triggered a furious debate in Kerala’s political circles. It was a wake-up call for both the UDF and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF).

A repeat of the Neyyattinkara voting pattern – a possibility which cannot be ruled out altogether – would frustrate the hopes of both the Congress and the CPI(M) to ensure a decent tally in the Lok Sabha elections. Both the Congress and the CPI(M) need a good performance. It is extremely important that the Congress do well as Kerala is the only state apart from Karnataka from where the party hopes to win a good number of seats in its effort to retain power at the Centre. For the CPI(M), too, it is necessary to put up a good show as the party cannot hope to do well in West Bengal, its former stronghold.

That being the reality, a repeat of the Neyyattinkara the verdict would spell disaster for both the dominant fronts in Kerala to the advantage of the BJP. That is the argument of BJP leaders.

But what is the situation at the ground level? Does the State BJP have the strength and organizational machinery to translate the majoritarian anger into votes? The answer to this question is in the negative, given the infighting raging in the state unit. Unless the state unit closes ranks, fructification of its hopes to create history by opening its account in the Lok Sabha elections is out of the question.

That is why the three-day national conclave of the RSS at Kochi, Akhil Bharatiya Karyakarta Mandal (ABKM), held for the first time in Kerala, has given a call to its cadres to actively participate in the electoral battle to give a much-needed boost to the BJP’s prospects. In other words, the RSS has made it clear that it won’t be a silent spectator in the coming poll battle. This important decision, on paper, must come as a shot in the arm for the infighting-plagued and organisationally weak Kerala unit.

Obviously, the RSS decision has come in the wake of the BJP’s anointment of Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate. A lot is at stake for the RSS in Modi’s victory. After all, it was the RSS pressure which forced the anti-Modi BJP leaders led by party stalwart L K Advani to back the Gujarat Chief Minister, albeit reluctantly.

But the moot question is: can the RSS ensure that the state BJP works as a united team? It remains to be seen whether a section of the state BJP, at loggerheads with the RSS, will fall in line with the latter’s call for unity. It is a known fact that a section of the RSS was opposed to the re-nomination of State BJP president, V. Muralidharan, whose style of functioning has created a serious rift in the state unit.

That there are two groups in the State BJP – one led by state party chief Muralidharan and the other headed by BJP’s national secretary P K Krishnadas. The groups are sharply divided over the choice of candidates for the Lok Sabha elections, too.

The schism is particularly pronounced in Thiruvananthapuram, which the BJP thinks it can win this time around. The BJP candidate from the state capital is BJP veteran O. Rajagopal, who, incidentally, polled more than 2.25 lakh votes in the 2004 elections. Mr. Rajagopal has a clean image and can attract a large number of floating voters who decide their choice in the eleventh hour. His performance as Minister of state for railways in the Vajpayee government at the Centre is another plus point. But the official group is learnt to be unhappy about his choice. It may be mentioned that Rajagopal has been critical of the style of functioning of the state party president Muralidharan. Therefore, it is doubtful whether Rajagopal will secure the full support of the party despite the RSS pressure.

A raging debate is on in the Kerala political circles on whether the Modi factor will have any impact In Kerala. The BJP thinks it certainly will have a crucial bearing on the result. True, Modi created ripples during his recent visit to the state to attend the birthday celebrations of Mata Amrithanandamayi. But he certainly did not take the State by storm as his supporters would have the people believe. True, he was the star speaker at the function, and the enthusiasm of the audience was visible. And Modi spent considerable time talking to SNDP chief Vellappally Natesan, who was present on the occasion. It was a clear effort to enlist the support of the SNDP for the BJP as Modi knows the former is unhappy about the Oommen Chandy Government’s blatantly pro-minority policy to the detriment of the majority community.

But Modi’s detractors claim he won’t be able to influence the outcome of the elections because he remains a highly polarised leader, who has yet to erase the blot on account of the pogrom against Muslims in Gujarat in 2002. That being the case, the minorities in the state, who hold the key to success in a large number of seats, especially in the Malabar region, continue to be vehemently opposed to him. Modi seems aware of the organisational weakness of the state BJP as well. That explains his advice to the party against stretching its meagre organisational resources, and, instead, concentrate on four or five ‘winnable’ constituencies. Among the seats, where he thinks the party has a reasonably good chance are Kasargode, Thiruvananthapuram and Palakkad. (IPA Service)