Nor its signal failures in economic management, reflected in unremitting inflation - hurting people’s daily lives and driving down domestic savings - and low growth years, are forgivable despite its leading economists in policy-making. The ever-complacent Congress, heading an attenuated alliance and lacking an absolute majority of its own in Parliament, has simply survived in an atmosphere of apathy as opposition parties have remained more focused on 2014.

At the organisational level, the Congress, cut off from grass roots, has traditionally relied on moneyed power seekers across the states to deliver the requisite votes. In 2014, the game will be even more different than before. Apart from BJP, the main pretender to the throne, caught up in a fantasy evoked by its Prime Ministerial candidate, Mr Narendra Modi, a restless campaigner for months now, the stronger regional parties in states are now more formidable to dictate politics of the future.

There is palpable despair in the Congress leadership that, as the electoral path gets harder by the day, the odds are not in its favour. Yet, wishful thinking keeps them seemingly unperturbed for the present, months left in which some “miracles” could be worked out and tested. But, politics has dramatically changed from the halcyon days of 2004 and 2009, both of which saw sweeps for them in the states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh respectively.

The Congress President Ms. Sonia Gandhi, the supreme strategist for the party’s fortunes, now hardened by experience, does not have many options left to put together a workable, let alone, a winning alliance. It is in this milieu that desperation takes over, as can be clearly seen in her politically-motivated Telengana decision foisted on UPA Government, overlooking its serious repercussions that thoughtful leaders would take care of by balancing while making a momentous move like this.

A mass revolt in the larger Seemandhra region of Andhra Pradesh and a partial breakdown of administration and power shut-downs in large parts of the State have all been played down by the Centre. The manner in which the Telengana decision was rushed through the Union Cabinet, in disregard of vital issues at stake for the rest of Andhra Pradesh, have left the people seething with rage. There were no formal consultations with all recognised parties at the decisive stage.

Apparently Ms. Sonia Gandhi, having made up her mind, deputed Mr Digvijay Singh, not hitherto involved in Andhra Pradesh affairs, to go through a semblance of discussion with all parties in Hyderabad, which he did and recommended what was expected of him. Having ignored the fall-out in Seemandhra, Mr Singh counselled State Congressmen to remain loyal and follow the dictates of he central leadership. That a Cabinet Committee has had to be constituted, in afterthought, to go into issues of critical importance to Andhras - the future of Hyderabad, sharing of river waters and infrastructure dispositions etc – showed up the haphazard decision-making.

Does it politically benefit the Congress? Hardly. Given the tantrums of the Telengana party leader Mr K. Chandrasekhara Rao, the Congress would not reap the maximum gains in Telengana with its 17 seats while virtually losing its bastion in the rest of Andhra Pradesh, which under the leadership of late Dr Y S Rajasekhar Reddy, provided the largest block of Lok Sabha seats for any state in 2009.

In Tamil Nadu, the Congress could gain a chunk of seats in 2004 as part of the DMK-led alliance of Mr Karunanidhi, which captured all the 39 seats and that was also helped by the anti-incumbency votes against the then Jayalalithaa Government. But in 2009, the DMK-Congress alliance could not do as well as expected, though the Congress, with gains in other states, notched up a record total of 206 seats in the 15th Lok Sabha.

In the state elections in 2011, the tables were turned against Mr Karunanidhi, whose DMK suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Ms. Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK. Corruption charges, the telecom scandal involving DMK Minister Mr A Raja at the Centre, and succession rivalries in the party had all contributed to pushing Mr Karunanidhi and his party into the background for some time. And at the height of the popularity of their leader, the AIDMK wants to capture, if it can, all the Lok Sabha seats and ensure a national stature for Ms. Jayalalithaa.

DMK leader somewhat belatedly realised that he cannot allow his party to be upstaged by Chief Minister Jayalalithaa on every issue of importance to the state and Tamils in Sri Lanka. He dramatically withdrew his party Ministers in the Union Cabinet in protest against India not joining in condemning the Rajapakse Government in the UN Human Rights Council. More recently, his veiled warning to the Centre in case the Prime Minister did not boycott the CHOGM November Summit in Colombo, had Finance Minister Mr Chidambaram rushing to inform him that no decision had yet been taken.

Such electoral compulsions of DMK have equally driven TN Congress Ministers in the Cabinet including Mr Chidambaram to make known their aversion to PM attending the CHOGM. Dr Manmohan Singh was weighing the options when his presence in Colombo, guided by India’s interests, was strongly recommended by the External Affairs Ministry. Be that as it may, the Sri Lankan Tamil issue would remain a major issue in the Lok Sabha election for all Tamil parties..

DMK has two major challenges, first to strengthen the party ahead of the Lok Sabha elections to reclaim its space at the Centre and, secondly, re-make alliance with Congress and other state-level smaller parties and try to ensure that Ms. Jayalalithaa does not walk away with the bulk of the 39 TN seats. On current reckoning Ms. Jayalalithaa, even if she is not aligning with BJP or promoting a Third Front, could certainly become a major player at the Centre in a post-election scenario where neither a Congress-led alliance or one led by BJP could form the next Government by itself.

The Congress leadership could turn more seriously to the electoral strategy with pointers emerging from the state assembly elections in the coming weeks. Given the prospect of a relatively poorer showing in at least two major southern states, it may have to shift emphasis on forging seat-sharing arrangements with one or more parties in the North and East, especially in Bihar and West Bengal. At the Governmental level, the efforts would have to be making policies more voter-friendly and appealing to both the rural and urban electorate, especially the middle class which Mr Modi is already targeting drawing large audiences in his country-wide rallies.(IPA Service)