Most chambers of Commerce and other bodies have appealed, mainly to the opposition parties led by the BNP, to exempt from the purview of repeated bandhs and general strikes, the import and export sector. Their efforts have gone in vain.

Prior to the onset of the present spell of unrest, Bangladesh, despite its difficulties, enjoyed a healthy BOP position. Almost 12 per cent of the country’s GDP comes from remittances from abroad, which is higher than the percentage of Pakistan, in the region.

National planners had estimated GDP to grow at around 5.8 per cent this fiscal year, despite the recession in Europe and a partial recovery in the US. During the first quarter of the year it seemed that the economy was on the right track to growth. But the sharp deterioration in the law and order situation during the past few months has forced a rethink.

With a sharp downturn in the local manufacturing and services, economists fear that the growth target would not be met. Not only would the BOP suffer, inflation would increase and a cascading effect would be felt in other areas of the economy as well.

At present, the quantum of excess liquidity in the system, a sign of weak demand on part of investors, remains a source of acute concern. In August this year, excess liquidity was estimated at taka 29 billion over the June-July levels. The high cost of local bank credits is an added dampener.

Interestingly, thanks to the sharp fall in the value of the Indian rupee vis-a-vis the US dollar in recent months, the gap between it and the Bangladeshi taka has also narrowed considerably, giving India’s smaller neighbour a considerable advantage in bilateral trade.

Bangladesh media report that some investors have, put off by the high rate of interest charged locally, begun borrowing funds from banks abroad, which would strain the BOP position in the long run.

Manufacturing and services apart, border trade with India and the tourism sector have been hit hard. Agartala-based spokesmen of the Tripura Chamber of Commerce and Industries fear that it was almost certain that the target set for bilateral border trade at Rs 500 crore for the current financial year would not be met. Instead of around 200 trucks reaching Tripura daily carrying fish, electronic items, cement or stone chips, only 50 or so vehicles were arriving now. Trade circles in Bangladesh, equally worried over the trend concede that until the present political situation improved, no improvement in the traffic could be expected.

The situation is no better at the biggest dry port at the international border between Petrapole (West Bengal) and Benapole (Bangladesh) either. Traders in Assam and Meghalaya have also complained of lack of business.

Meanwhile the US still insists that Bangladesh garments producing units must instal effective safety devices and take other steps to improve working conditions, despite some progress made. The US had withdrawn the duty-free facility given to Bangladeshi garments earlier under the GSP system, following the Rana Plaza collapse that killed over 1100 people. The decision has hurt nearly 4 million garments industry workers.

The sharp decline in the tourist traffic has led to the recent lay-off of some 5000 workers in the Chittagong area alone, as hotels and resorts have had to cancel bookings on a large scale. Two travel operators reported to Dhaka media that over the past two months 100 and 60 international bookings, from Europe, Asia and the US , had to be cancelled. International flights have been curtailed as political violence has continued. At present the rate of occupancy in most hotels ranged between 0 and 10%, said travel operators.

More worryingly for all concerned, there are no signs that things will get better soon. While the ruling Awami League (AL) has been seen as the party that can ‘agitate most effectively’ in view of its performance against the Pakistani administration prior to 1970-71, now the BNP (known for its pro-Pak leanings), seems bent on returning the compliment.

Led by Khaleda Zia, who has a visceral hatred for the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the BNP has on each and every occasion rejected every AL appeal not to resort to prolonged bandhs and go in for disruptionist agitations.

Indeed, the BNP of late has complained of what it felt was the ‘inactive engagement’ of the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal, with the police and the Al cadres during recent armed clashes that has claimed over 20 lives and led to much destruction of public property. BNP acting Gen Sec Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir has been quoted by Dhaka media as saying that it was not expected of these organisations that they would remain content with ‘vandalising only one of two vehicles and not come out on the streets in thousands!’

Clearly the BNP has interests other than helping the national economy. However, senior BNP leaders have in turn been themselves accused of ‘playing safe’ during demonstrations and clashes, while urging others to make more sacrifices. While the Jamaat has been more interested in getting its arrested cadres released, BNP leaders complain in private that the administration these days deals with violent demonstrations ‘ruthlessly’, which makes things difficult!
(IPA Service)