His entry into the alley was predictable. After the ghastly carnage of the kar sevaks travelling in the Sabarmati Express on February 27 of that year, the outbreak of the communal violence in Gujarat in which the saffron hordes played a prominent part was only to be expected.

For Modi, the years of indoctrination of an anti-Muslim outlook by the RSS must have tempered his adherence to the raj dharma of protecting all citizens. Subsequently, his success in the assembly elections later in the year couldn’t but have made him believe that he was on the right track. As much was evident from his decision to appoint the riot-accused Maya Kodnani as a minister, reportedly at the behest of the latter’s fellow Sindhi supporter, L.K. Advani.

The increase in Kodnani’s margin of victory from the Naroda constituency from 75,000 in 1998 to 110,000 in 2002 – after the riots – and then to 180,000 in 2007 also showed that the violence has strengthened the BJP’s and Modi’s position, especially among the middle class comprising communal-minded Hindus.

As social scientist Ashis Nandy has noted, “the class has found in militant religious nationalism a new self-respect and a new virtual identity as a martial community the way Bengali babus, Maharashtrian Brahmins and Kashmiri Muslims at different times have sought salvation in violence”.

Modi, therefore, was riding on a wave of political success in those years. But, even as he consolidated his position by a third victory in the assembly elections of 2012, two aspects of the otherwise satisfactory scene must have begun to worry him.

One reason was the court cases against him, for the ploy of the Gujarat police to close down the 2,000-odd cases relating to the riots on the ground of lack of evidence was overturned by the Supreme Court’s decision not only to reopen them, but also hold some of the most horrible instances of arson, rape and murder outside Gujarat. The decision was not a compliment to the “modern-day Nero”, as the court called Modi.

The other was that political success did not earn him any respect. He remained a pariah with the charge of being a mass murderer hanging like an albatross round his neck. The denial of visas by the Western world till recently – the US is yet to give him a visa - was a reminder of his position as an outcaste.

Modi first tried to rub off the stain by accusing his critics of targeting Gujarat’s asmita or pride. But, this reference to the state’s honour may have turned his mind towards development. The advantage of this approach is that it resonates with the middle class, the section of the population whose admiration for him now incorporates both his role as a Hindutva icon and his economic agenda, which has been hailed by economists like Arvind Panagariya.

It is this combination which has given him the present political momentum. Moreover, the impetus is all the greater because the Hindu middle class across the country applauds his stance of having taught the Muslims a lesson. That he is now slightly moderating his position vis-à-vis the minorities does not bother them for they recognize it as a political tactic which, in all likelihood, will be temporary in nature.

Modi, therefore, can be said to have tapped into two strands of the Hindu middle class sentiment – its longstanding prejudice against Muslims and its post-1991 realization that economic salvation lies in growth and not in a controlled economy.

This is where the Congress is losing out. While its pro-minority initiatives are castigated as minority appeasement, thereby alienating the Hindus, Rahul Gandhi’s repeated references to the party’s pro-poor stance are tantamount to a rejection of the economic reforms in view of the implicit suggestion that the market-oriented policies have not benefitted the underprivileged.

A sub-text of this line is a return to the licence-permit-control raj along with the adoption of the paternalistic concept of a mai-baap sarkar handing out doles via legislations on the rural employment scheme and food security at the behest of a benevolent feudal family. It is an attitude, which is hopelessly out of sync with the present-day mall-and-multiplex culture where even the poor expect to prosper from a buoyant economy and not be dependent on handouts.

It is a combination of the Congress’s failure to assess the mood of the nation and Modi’s transition from a minority-baiter to a business-friendly politician, which has enabled the latter to pose a serious challenge to the party in power at the centre. He may still stumble because of snoopgate or a further exposure of the limitations of this “average” student, to quote his schoolteacher, in the field of knowledge. But, as of now, the saheb of Snoopgate is ahead of the shehzada. (IPA Service)